Baylor @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

3-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

Arizona State

2-1 · Power #66

final

Closing spread

ASU -3.5

✓ BAY W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 24–27 ASU

✗ ASU (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenASU -3.5

CloseASU -3.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -3.5

no move

CloseASU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▼ 2

Close49.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -3.5 · unchangedmodel ASU -4.5

model ASU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (351 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenASU -3.5

CloseASU -3.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 3.5-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 55–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 3.2; 57.2 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs RUTG 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	31–28	L	O51.5
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	ASU vs KU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	35–31	W	O50
Very close	ISU vs BYU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	27–41	L	O49
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	28–21	W	U51
Very close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5	23–0	W	U47
Very close	SMU vs LOU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	38–6	W	U49.5
Very close	BC vs SYR 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	37–31	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY WWLW	3-1	75%	—	1-0
ASU WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1
ASU OOU	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 734 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
ASU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAY 0–1 ASU ASU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ASU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2025	Arizona State 27 @ Baylor 24	BAY -1.5	ASU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY+4.5 →+5.3▲ 0.8#48

ASU+6.4 →+5.4▼ 1.0#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BAY

Longer bar = better

ASU

#96

Offense

ASU better ▶

#66

#13

Defense

◀ BAY better

#52

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #92

81 plays #2

Pace

◀ BAY faster

67 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: ASU defense

	BAY off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #73	24.0 #76	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #106	4.68 #28	ASU
PPA / play	+0.08 #100	+0.03 #54	ASU
Success rate	40% #105	38% #50	ASU

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	ASU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #26	13.0 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.39 #48	4.26 #15	BAY
PPA / play	+0.04 #113	−0.10 #12	BAY
Success rate	43% #77	34% #13	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.0 #73	11.8 #39	17.8 #55	4.8 #97	7.3 #69	12.0 #83
ASU allowed	4.7 #79	5.7 #43	10.3 #57	2.3 #23	11.3 #134	13.7 #104

ASU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	12.7 #6	10.3 #55	23.0 #17	12.7 #5	2.3 #133	15.0 #54
BAY allowed	4.0 #54	1.8 #4	5.8 #8	0.8 #6	6.5 #80	7.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.