Texas State @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff94°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas State

2-2 · Power #58

final

Final

San Diego State

1-3 · Power #108

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -10

✓ SDSU W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 33–25 SDSU

✗ TXST (73%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTXST -4.5

CloseTXST -10

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -4.5

5.5 → TXST

CloseTXST -10

5.5 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open60.5

▼ 3

Close57.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -4.5 · closed TXST -10 · moved 5.5 toward TXSTmodel TXST -2

model TXST -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 77%, covered 57% (78 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (113 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTXST -4.5

CloseTXST -10

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 10-point road favorite at SDSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 31–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 57.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 9.8; 49.1 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DUKE @ UNC 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	32–25	P	O50.5
Close	WVU @ BAY 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	34–31	L	O54
Close	VT @ STAN 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	31–7	W	U49.5
Close	MRSH @ GAST 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	30–18	W	U59.5
Loose	UVA @ CAL 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	31–21	W	U52.5
Loose	UNLV @ UNM 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-14.5	56–14	W	O58
Loose	KENN @ NMSU 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & situation	-11.5	24–21	L	U52.5
Loose	ARIZ @ STAN 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13	21–20	L	U60
Loose	CAL @ STAN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–15	W	U53.5
Loose	UVA @ UNC 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-11.5	17–16	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST LLWW	2-2	50%	0-1	2-1
SDSU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; SDSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2
SDSU OUUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 586 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SDSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST−1.3 →−0.2▲ 1.1#68

SDSU−1.2 →−5.5▼ 4.3#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TXST

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#18

Offense

◀ TXST better

#124

#120

Defense

SDSU better ▶

#102

−0.5 #101

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #113

73 plays #16

Pace

◀ TXST faster

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #39	28.8 #112	TXST
Yards / play	7.22 #10	5.65 #93	TXST
PPA / play	+0.37 #7	+0.15 #96	TXST
Success rate	51% #15	45% #107	TXST

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #105	33.8 #128	SDSU
Yards / play	4.85 #125	5.88 #105	Even
PPA / play	−0.06 #129	+0.21 #121	Even
Success rate	32% #137	47% #127	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	12.3 #9	11.3 #44	23.5 #13	3.3 #116	9.5 #27	12.8 #76
SDSU allowed	5.8 #98	4.8 #31	10.5 #59	7.8 #119	10.5 #131	18.3 #128

SDSU scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	2.5 #126	5.5 #114	8.0 #129	6.8 #63	8.3 #48	15.0 #54
TXST allowed	8.8 #128	9.5 #109	18.3 #124	7.8 #119	7.8 #109	15.5 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.