North Texas @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Thu, Oct 1, 2026, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

North Texas

2-2 · Power #54

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

3-1 · Power #87

final

Closing spread

UNT -3

✓ TLSA W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 30–27 TLSA

✓ UNT (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNT -1.5

CloseUNT -3

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -1.5

1.5 → UNT

CloseUNT -3

1.5 pts toward North Texas

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -1.5 · closed UNT -3 · moved 1.5 toward UNTmodel UNT -4.5

model UNT -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (218 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (327 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNT -1.5

CloseUNT -3

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 3-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UNT won 45–44; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 4; 60.8 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	TXST @ USA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	45–38	W	O61
Very close	CONN @ BUFF 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–17	P	U51.5
Very close	CONN @ USM 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	48–20	W	O54.5
Close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Close	UVA @ CAL 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	31–21	W	U52.5
Close	KU @ UCF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	27–20	W	U53.5
Close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5
Close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WWLW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-0
TLSA WLWL	2-2	50%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; TLSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2
TLSA UUUU	0-4	0%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 618 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
TLSA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNT 2–0 TLSA UNT leads · 2 games since 2023 · UNT has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Tulsa 20 @ North Texas 52	UNT -7.5	UNT W
Nov 18 2023	North Texas 35 @ Tulsa 28	UNT -2	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT+4.5 →+1.2▼ 3.3#62

TLSA−10.2 →−5.1▲ 5.1#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UNT

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#18

Offense

◀ UNT better

#100

#116

Defense

TLSA better ▶

#37

+0.8 #34

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #31

71 plays #27

Pace

◀ UNT faster

64 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Even matchup

	UNT off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #25	15.3 #25	Even
Yards / play	7.24 #14	4.86 #44	UNT
PPA / play	+0.37 #11	−0.05 #22	Even
Success rate	51% #21	39% #56	UNT

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #100	30.3 #117	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #98	6.01 #109	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #88	+0.19 #109	TLSA
Success rate	39% #114	48% #129	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	8.5 #43	13.8 #21	22.3 #29	9.5 #21	7.8 #56	17.3 #30
TLSA allowed	4.3 #63	4.0 #23	8.3 #34	4.3 #56	2.8 #16	7.0 #25

TLSA scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	2.5 #125	6.0 #106	8.5 #126	10.0 #18	5.3 #103	15.3 #54
UNT allowed	10.5 #131	6.8 #58	17.3 #115	4.3 #56	8.8 #116	13.0 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.