Oregon State @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F13 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

2-2 · Power #48

▲ winner

Final

Colorado State

2-2 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

ORST -7

✓ ORST W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 30–25 CSU

✓ ORST (65%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORST -3.5

CloseORST -7

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -3.5

3.5 → ORST

CloseORST -7

3.5 pts toward Oregon State

Total

Open59.5

▲ 1

Close60.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -3.5 · closed ORST -7 · moved 3.5 toward ORSTmodel CSU -1.5

model CSU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (153 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (207 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORST -3.5

CloseORST -7

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 7-point road favorite at CSU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ORST won 56–26; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 60.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.7 against an average line of 5.6; 54.7 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL @ CCU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	34–24	W	O57
Close	MEM @ UAB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	45–21	W	O62
Close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Close	ECU @ TEM 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-5.5	45–14	W	O58.5
Close	BOIS @ USU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-5	45–10	W	U63.5
Close	LIB @ JXST 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	31–13	W	U59
Close	KENN @ JXST 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	19–15	W	U62.5
Close	NAVY @ USF 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	28–7	W	U58.5
Close	TOL @ EMU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-10	29–28	L	O54.5
Close	CSU @ USU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	24–44	L	O62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	2-0
CSU WWLW	3-1	75%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: ORST away, as favorite; CSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST OOOU	3-1	75%	2-2
CSU OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 344 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CSU	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ORST 1–0 CSU ORST leads · 1 game since 2023 · ORST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Colorado State 31 @ Oregon State 39	ORST -10.5	CSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST−8.0 →−3.4▲ 4.6#79

CSU−10.5 →−7.4▲ 3.1#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ORST

Longer bar = better

CSU

#54

Offense

CSU better ▶

#34

#67

Defense

◀ ORST better

#129

+0.8 #38

Turnovers

CSU better ▶

+1.8 #7

67 plays #61

Pace

CSU faster ▶

70 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #62	34.3 #129	ORST
Yards / play	6.81 #26	7.35 #137	ORST
PPA / play	+0.25 #41	+0.22 #121	ORST
Success rate	42% #85	47% #130	ORST

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #23	23.0 #71	CSU
Yards / play	6.72 #31	5.07 #60	CSU
PPA / play	+0.32 #20	+0.09 #77	CSU
Success rate	44% #62	39% #58	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	9.5 #27	7.8 #87	17.3 #61	8.5 #33	6.5 #85	15.0 #55
CSU allowed	13.0 #138	10.3 #118	23.3 #136	5.3 #78	5.8 #67	11.0 #74

CSU scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	11.3 #14	11.3 #45	22.5 #22	6.0 #69	11.8 #8	17.8 #26
ORST allowed	2.3 #22	6.8 #58	9.0 #34	7.0 #100	7.0 #90	14.0 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.