Colorado State @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UTSA

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Colorado State

2-1 · Power #110

final

Final

UTSA

2-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -14.5

✓ CSU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 104 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 22–36 UTSA

✓ UTSA (84%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTSA -11.5

CloseUTSA -14.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -11.5

3 → UTSA

CloseUTSA -14.5

3 pts toward UTSA

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -11.5 · closed UTSA -14.5 · moved 3 toward UTSAmodel UTSA -11.5

model UTSA -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 58% (142 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (316 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTSA -11.5

CloseUTSA -14.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 14.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 59–45; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 104 points went over 56.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.2 against an average line of 13.2; 59 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs UNLV 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	56–31	W	O61
Close	FRES vs UNLV 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & total	-10.5	31–24	L	U56
Close	SC vs JXST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-15.5	38–28	L	O55
Close	CAL vs ORST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	44–7	W	P51
Close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5
Close	APP vs GASO 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-10.5	55–27	W	O63
Close	UTSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-13.5	34–14	W	U54.25
Close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings	-11.5	20–33	L	U55
Close	KU vs WVU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-12.5	41–10	W	U54.5
Close	ASU vs TXST 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	34–15	W	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU WWL	2-1	67%	—	0-1
UTSA WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
UTSA OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 600 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%
UTSA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CSU 0–1 UTSA UTSA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTSA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2025	UTSA 17 @ Colorado State 16	UTSA -5.5	CSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−10.5 →−7.6▲ 2.9#100

UTSA+0.4 →+0.1▼ 0.3#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CSU

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#34

Offense

◀ CSU better

#75

#113

Defense

UTSA better ▶

#77

+2.7 #3

Turnovers

◀ CSU better

+1.3 #19

67 plays #61

Pace

◀ CSU faster

60 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #36	24.0 #83	CSU
Yards / play	6.85 #28	5.34 #80	CSU
PPA / play	+0.33 #23	−0.01 #41	Even
Success rate	46% #48	44% #104	CSU

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #93	26.0 #99	Even
Yards / play	5.96 #81	7.28 #133	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.16 #75	+0.12 #96	UTSA
Success rate	46% #51	47% #125	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	10.3 #28	12.7 #36	23.0 #27	3.3 #112	12.3 #12	15.7 #50
UTSA allowed	3.3 #46	11.0 #118	14.3 #96	3.0 #39	6.7 #81	9.7 #64

UTSA scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	5.7 #80	8.0 #84	13.7 #95	4.3 #100	9.3 #31	13.7 #69
CSU allowed	10.3 #127	9.0 #93	19.3 #125	4.7 #67	2.0 #11	6.7 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.