Southern Miss @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Tulane

Weather at kickoff83°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-2 · Power #127

final

Final

Tulane

1-2 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -17.5

✓ USM W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 17–34 TULN

✓ TULN (89%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTULN -17.5

CloseTULN -17.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -17.5

no move

CloseTULN -17.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -17.5 · unchangedmodel TULN -16.5

model TULN -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 51% (144 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTULN -17.5

CloseTULN -17.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 17.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.2 against an average line of 17.6; 54.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Very close	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-20	48–0	W	U48.5
Very close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Very close	WKU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-19	44–17	W	O55.5
Very close	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-21	41–28	L	O55
Very close	UTSA vs TEM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	51–27	W	O56
Very close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Close	UCLA vs UNM 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-15.5	10–35	L	U52.5
Close	MSU vs EMU 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	35–7	W	U49.5
Close	WAKE vs DEL 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	52–14	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-2
TULN LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
TULN UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
TULN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USM 0–1 TULN TULN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TULN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Tulane 21 @ Southern Miss 3	TULN -8	TULN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−8.2 →−15.4▼ 7.2#126

TULN+2.5 →−2.6▼ 5.1#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

USM

Longer bar = better

TULN

#97

Offense

◀ USM better

#113

#107

Defense

Even

#95

+0.3 #59

Turnovers

◀ USM better

0.0 #83

73 plays #18

Pace

◀ USM faster

55 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #95	24.0 #84	Even
Yards / play	5.30 #110	6.01 #111	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #122	+0.15 #104	Even
Success rate	45% #62	41% #80	Even

When TULN has the ball

Even matchup

	TULN off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #128	31.3 #118	Even
Yards / play	5.67 #95	5.94 #109	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #96	+0.16 #109	Even
Success rate	34% #132	42% #91	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

USM scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	3.3 #113	8.3 #83	11.7 #102	9.3 #26	4.7 #107	14.0 #66
TULN allowed	5.7 #93	6.7 #58	12.3 #80	4.7 #73	7.0 #92	11.7 #85

TULN scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	2.3 #122	5.7 #112	8.0 #123	3.3 #114	5.7 #93	9.0 #115
USM allowed	11.3 #132	7.7 #78	19.0 #125	10.0 #130	2.3 #11	12.3 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.