Houston @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Georgia Southern

Weather at kickoff82°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Houston

2-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Georgia Southern

1-2 · Power #82

final

Closing spread

HOU -17.5

✓ GASO W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 36–19 GASO

✓ HOU (89%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -19.5

CloseHOU -17.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -19.5

2 → GASO

CloseHOU -17.5

2 pts toward Georgia Southern

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -19.5 · closed HOU -17.5 · moved 2 toward GASOmodel HOU -15.5

model HOU -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 47% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (248 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -19.5

CloseHOU -17.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 17.5-point road favorite at GASO, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 42–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 15.7; 51.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST @ TLSA 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation	-17.5	45–10	W	U62.5
Close	FSU @ STAN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-17.5	13–20	L	U55.5
Close	BOIS @ HAW 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-21	28–7	P	U60
Close	NAVY @ TLSA 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	42–23	W	O52.5
Close	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5
Close	OSU @ PUR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	41–7	W	U53
Close	GT @ WAKE 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-13	30–29	L	O53.5
Close	ODU @ MRSH 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-14.5	24–48	L	O57.5
Close	BOIS @ SJSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	42–21	W	O62
Close	TULN @ CLT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total	-14.5	34–3	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
GASO WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; GASO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
GASO UUO	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 608 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
GASO	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+3.9 →+9.2▲ 5.3#33

GASO−8.8 →−7.9▲ 0.9#102

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

HOU

Longer bar = better

GASO

#13

Offense

◀ HOU better

#105

#64

Defense

GASO better ▶

#33

+0.7 #48

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #45

70 plays #36

Pace

Even

72 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	45.3 #15	17.7 #45	HOU
Yards / play	7.50 #11	4.19 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #18	0.00 #48	HOU
Success rate	53% #6	32% #19	Even

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	GASO off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #116	18.0 #47	HOU
Yards / play	5.34 #106	5.42 #85	HOU
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.03 #56	HOU
Success rate	41% #97	40% #69	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	15.7 #2	12.7 #35	28.3 #5	10.3 #19	6.7 #80	17.0 #33
GASO allowed	2.3 #23	6.3 #60	8.7 #43	2.3 #25	6.7 #84	9.0 #51

GASO scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	8.0 #48	10.3 #56	18.3 #52	3.3 #116	0.0 #135	3.3 #137
HOU allowed	2.3 #23	4.7 #39	7.0 #30	6.3 #98	4.7 #43	11.0 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.