Kansas State @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

3-0 · Power #41

final

Final

Cincinnati

3-0 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -6

✓ CIN W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 31–26 CIN

✗ KSU (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKSU -6

CloseKSU -6

Total52.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -6

no move

CloseKSU -6

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▲ 3

Close55.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -6 · unchangedmodel KSU -4

model KSU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 62%, covered 49% (143 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKSU -6

CloseKSU -6

Total52.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 6-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CIN won 31–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 55.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 65%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 3.7 against an average line of 4.9; 54.1 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	20–33	L	U54
Very close	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Very close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	UTAH @ BYU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	21–24	L	U49.5
Close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	KSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–30	L	O48.5
Close	GT @ SYR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	28–31	L	U60.5
Close	TENN @ MSST 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	41–34	L	O63.5
Close	ISU @ WVU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3	28–16	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WWL	2-1	67%	—	2-1
CIN WWL	2-1	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
CIN UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 648 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
CIN	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KSU 3–5 CIN CIN leads · 8 games since 1951 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Cincinnati 15 @ Kansas State 41	KSU -7.5	KSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+6.3 →+9.6▲ 3.3#32

CIN+1.4 →+2.9▲ 1.5#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

KSU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#26

Offense

Even

#23

Defense

◀ KSU better

#79

−0.3 #98

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+1.3 #18

70 plays #40

Pace

CIN faster ▶

72 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	45.3 #14	18.7 #50	KSU
Yards / play	7.02 #24	5.59 #95	KSU
PPA / play	+0.29 #33	+0.09 #83	KSU
Success rate	50% #32	42% #88	KSU

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	43.7 #20	10.0 #12	Even
Yards / play	6.80 #32	3.28 #3	KSU
PPA / play	+0.36 #13	−0.13 #15	Even
Success rate	51% #25	29% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	8.3 #47	15.0 #16	23.3 #23	12.7 #6	9.3 #34	22.0 #11
CIN allowed	5.7 #93	7.0 #65	12.7 #81	2.7 #37	3.3 #21	6.0 #18

CIN scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.7 #83	9.3 #72	15.0 #83	16.3 #1	12.3 #9	28.7 #1
KSU allowed	2.3 #25	4.3 #34	6.7 #29	1.0 #12	2.3 #11	3.3 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.