South Alabama @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Kentucky

Weather at kickoff71°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

2-1 · Power #101

final

Final

Kentucky

2-1 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

UK -20.5

✓ UK W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 16–37 UK

✓ UK (93%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUK -19.5

CloseUK -20.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUK -19.5

1 → UK

CloseUK -20.5

1 pt toward Kentucky

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UK -19.5 · closed UK -20.5 · moved 1 toward UKmodel UK -21

model UK -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 47% (114 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (316 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUK -19.5

CloseUK -20.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 20.5-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 45–21; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 32.9 against an average line of 20; 56.7 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Very close	JMU vs APP 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-21	58–10	W	O53.5
Very close	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-20	48–0	W	U48.5
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-21	45–7	W	U54.5
Very close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Very close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Very close	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-21	41–28	L	O55
Close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Close	ISU vs ARST 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-20.5	52–7	W	O52
Close	MINN vs EMU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	25–6	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
UK WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
UK UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 682 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
UK	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−9.6 →−7.7▲ 1.9#101

UK+5.5 →+8.0▲ 2.5#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

USA

Longer bar = better

#69

Offense

Even

#61

#113

Defense

UK better ▶

#87

+1.3 #21

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #26

76 plays #10

Pace

◀ USA faster

60 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #55	26.3 #103	USA
Yards / play	5.84 #88	5.05 #63	UK
PPA / play	+0.23 #52	+0.06 #69	Even
Success rate	43% #81	45% #111	USA

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UK offense

	UK off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #74	26.0 #101	UK
Yards / play	6.27 #65	7.09 #132	UK
PPA / play	+0.19 #64	+0.26 #125	UK
Success rate	48% #40	42% #93	UK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

USA scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	14.3 #5	4.3 #125	18.7 #52	8.0 #46	8.0 #52	16.0 #46
UK allowed	2.3 #21	6.7 #65	9.0 #49	8.0 #120	9.3 #112	17.3 #123

UK scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	7.0 #64	10.3 #54	17.3 #65	9.3 #29	4.3 #113	13.7 #70
USA allowed	4.7 #70	4.7 #41	9.3 #51	9.3 #124	7.3 #101	16.7 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.