Kentucky @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 3:40 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff92°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

1-1 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Texas A&M

2-0 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

TA&M -16.5

✓ UK W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 16–34 TA&M

✗ TA&M (90%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTA&M -15.5

CloseTA&M -16.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -15.5

1 → TA&M

CloseTA&M -16.5

1 pt toward Texas A&M

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -15.5 · closed TA&M -16.5 · moved 1 toward TA&Mmodel TA&M -22.5

model TA&M -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 50% (138 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (305 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTA&M -15.5

CloseTA&M -16.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 16.5-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 10, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 31–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 17.7; 58.4 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs KSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	51–47	L	O52.5
Very close	TENN vs FLA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14	23–17	L	U55.5
Close	MIA vs VT 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	38–34	L	O55.5
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	IU vs MICH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	20–15	L	U47.5
Close	TENN vs UK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-17.5	28–18	L	O45.5
Close	BYU vs WVU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-19.5	38–24	L	O46.5
Close	USC vs MSU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	45–31	L	O55.5
Close	MISS vs OU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-19.5	26–14	L	U50
Close	TEX vs UK 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	31–14	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK WL	1-1	50%	—	0-1
TA&M WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK UO	1-1	50%	1-1
TA&M UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 653 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
TA&M	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.5 →+3.9▼ 1.6#52

TA&M+19.7 →+21.6▲ 1.9#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#82

Offense

TA&M better ▶

#61

#104

Defense

TA&M better ▶

#18

+0.5 #51

Turnovers

TA&M better ▶

+2.0 #13

63 plays #95

Pace

TA&M faster ▶

73 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	UK off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #71	10.0 #14	TA&M
Yards / play	5.72 #86	4.23 #34	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.06 #108	−0.36 #3	TA&M
Success rate	46% #61	31% #19	TA&M

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	49.0 #16	29.0 #113	TA&M
Yards / play	5.24 #112	5.06 #69	UK
PPA / play	+0.17 #66	+0.13 #105	TA&M
Success rate	48% #48	47% #129	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 59 FBS teams

UK scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	10.5	12.0	22.5	3.5	5.0	8.5
TA&M allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	5.0	0.0	5.0

TA&M scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.0	10.0	18.0	10.5	20.5	31.0
UK allowed	3.5	6.5	10.0	12.0	7.0	19.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.