New Mexico @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Oklahoma

Weather at kickoff95°F12 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

2-0 · Power #56

final

Final

Oklahoma

1-1 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -21.5

✓ UNM W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 11–32 OU

✓ OU (94%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOU -23.5

CloseOU -21.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -23.5

2 → UNM

CloseOU -21.5

2 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -23.5 · closed OU -21.5 · moved 2 toward UNMmodel OU -22.5

model OU -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 49% (105 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (237 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOU -23.5

CloseOU -21.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like OU as a 21.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 14–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 20 points stayed under 45.5, as in 0 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.5 against an average line of 19.5; 56.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ALA vs WIS 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-18.5	38–14	W	O45.5
Loose	VAN vs DEL 2026 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & situation	-20.5	35–26	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WW	2-0	100%	—	—
OU WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM UO	1-1	50%	2-0
OU UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
OU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−4.8 →−0.7▲ 4.1#67

OU+15.2 →+17.0▲ 1.8#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UNM

Longer bar = better

#36

Offense

◀ UNM better

#85

Defense

◀ UNM better

#21

+4.0 #1

Turnovers

◀ UNM better

−0.5 #98

70 plays #47

Pace

◀ UNM faster

60 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Even matchup

	UNM off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	54.0 #6	8.5 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #74	4.04 #26	OU
PPA / play	+0.29 #35	−0.14 #22	Even
Success rate	51% #27	32% #23	Even

When OU has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	OU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #73	7.0 #9	UNM
Yards / play	5.75 #84	2.95 #4	UNM
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	−0.38 #2	UNM
Success rate	42% #85	22% #4	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 101 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	7.0	27.5	34.5	14.5	5.0	19.5
OU allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

OU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	10.5	3.0	13.5	12.0	5.0	17.0
UNM allowed	3.5	0.0	3.5	0.0	3.5	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.