NC State @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Vanderbilt

Weather at kickoff97°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

NC State

1-1 · Power #61

final

Final

Vanderbilt

2-0 · Power #60

▲ winner

Closing spread

VAN -3

✓ VAN W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 25–30 VAN

✓ VAN (61%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVAN -4

CloseVAN -3

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -4

1 → NCSU

CloseVAN -3

1 pt toward NC State

Total

Open54.5

▼ 4

Close50.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VAN -4 · closed VAN -3 · moved 1 toward NCSUmodel VAN -8

model VAN -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (277 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (345 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVAN -4

CloseVAN -3

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 3-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 35–31; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 4.2; 52.3 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB vs ARK 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–24	L	U53.5
Very close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	28–21	W	U51
Close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Close	ILL vs DUKE 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-6	27–31	L	O51.5
Close	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Close	ASU vs TCU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	27–24	P	U54.5
Close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5	24–14	W	U51
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	BOIS vs UNLV 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-4	21–7	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
VAN LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; VAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU UO	1-1	50%	1-1
VAN UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 715 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
VAN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+6.0 →+4.4▼ 1.6#49

VAN+13.0 →+8.9▼ 4.1#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NCSU

Longer bar = better

VAN

#31

Offense

◀ NCSU better

#88

#76

Defense

VAN better ▶

#41

−0.5 #94

Turnovers

VAN better ▶

+0.5 #43

60 plays #105

Pace

VAN faster ▶

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #37	17.5 #57	Even
Yards / play	7.52 #20	4.53 #46	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.32 #29	−0.12 #29	Even
Success rate	49% #39	33% #30	Even

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #69	17.0 #50	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #95	4.47 #43	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #99	+0.10 #94	Even
Success rate	42% #87	44% #115	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 39 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	10.5	14.0	24.5	11.0	5.0	16.0
VAN allowed	3.0	10.0	13.0	0.0	4.5	4.5

VAN scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	9.5	5.0	14.5	13.5	3.5	17.0
NCSU allowed	5.0	3.5	8.5	3.5	5.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.