Ole Miss @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

3-0 · Power #12

final

Final

Florida

3-0 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

FLA -4

✓ FLA W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 30–33 FLA

✓ FLA (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFLA -1.5

CloseFLA -4

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -1.5

2.5 → FLA

CloseFLA -4

2.5 pts toward Florida

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -1.5 · closed FLA -4 · moved 2.5 toward FLAmodel FLA -1.5

model FLA -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (225 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (134 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFLA -1.5

CloseFLA -4

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 4-point home favorite against MISS, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 52–28; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 58.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 3.8; 48.9 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USC vs MICH 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-3	31–13	W	U58
Close	OU vs MISS 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	26–34	L	O52.5
Close	VAN vs MIZ 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–10	W	U52.5
Close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-4	15–30	L	U57
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Close	MISS vs LSU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–19	W	U58
Close	KU vs ILL 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	34–23	W	U57.5
Close	ORST vs WASH 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-1	20–22	L	U62.5
Close	ND vs USC 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	48–20	W	O61
Close	TCU vs SMU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–24	W	U63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS LLW	1-2	33%	—	1-0
FLA WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: MISS away, as underdog; FLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
FLA OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 495 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
FLA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MISS 13–14 FLA (1 tied) FLA leads · 28 games since 1926 · FLA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Florida 24 @ Ole Miss 34	MISS -11.5	FLA W
Nov 23 2024	Ole Miss 17 @ Florida 24	MISS -13.5	FLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+18.8 →+16.6▼ 2.2#13

FLA+10.9 →+14.9▲ 4.0#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MISS

Longer bar = better

FLA

#40

Offense

FLA better ▶

#11

#99

Defense

FLA better ▶

#46

−0.7 #111

Turnovers

FLA better ▶

+0.7 #36

70 plays #41

Pace

Even

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #39	21.0 #62	MISS
Yards / play	6.38 #56	4.47 #30	FLA
PPA / play	+0.29 #34	−0.04 #34	Even
Success rate	50% #31	39% #56	MISS

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	54.0 #2	23.7 #80	FLA
Yards / play	7.97 #5	5.63 #97	FLA
PPA / play	+0.45 #8	+0.19 #115	FLA
Success rate	51% #27	44% #103	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	5.7 #81	14.7 #23	20.3 #40	4.7 #92	13.0 #5	17.7 #30
FLA allowed	2.0 #21	9.3 #98	11.3 #69	4.7 #72	5.0 #56	9.7 #63

FLA scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	11.3 #21	23.0 #1	34.3 #2	11.7 #13	8.0 #52	19.7 #21
MISS allowed	1.0 #10	3.3 #23	4.3 #8	12.7 #134	6.7 #82	19.3 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.