Kennesaw State @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Arkansas State

Weather at kickoff80°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kennesaw State

1-2 · Power #117

final

Final

Arkansas State

1-2 · Power #103

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARST -6.5

✓ KENN W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

KENN 23–29 ARST

✓ ARST (67%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARST -5.5

CloseARST -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -5.5

1 → ARST

CloseARST -6.5

1 pt toward Arkansas State

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARST -5.5 · closed ARST -6.5 · moved 1 toward ARSTmodel ARST -4.5

model ARST -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (253 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (323 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARST -5.5

CloseARST -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 6.5-point home favorite against KENN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 17–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 5.1; 57.8 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA vs HAW 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	35–44	L	O52.5
Very close	LIB vs MOST 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	17–21	L	U51.5
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Very close	LT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	20–23	L	U56.5
Very close	DEL vs UTEP 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	61–31	W	O55.5
Very close	FIU vs DEL 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	16–38	L	U54.5
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Very close	USF vs CLT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	48–14	W	O56.75
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
ARST LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: KENN away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
ARST OOU	2-1	67%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
ARST	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KENN 1–1 ARST Series tied · 2 games since 2025 · ARST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2025	Arkansas State 21 @ Kennesaw State 28	ARST -4.5	KENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−10.4 →−11.6▼ 1.2#115

ARST−10.2 →−10.4▼ 0.2#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

KENN

Longer bar = better

ARST

#89

Offense

Even

#78

#107

Defense

Even

#113

+0.3 #64

Turnovers

ARST better ▶

+0.7 #39

67 plays #62

Pace

◀ KENN faster

57 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: KENN offense

	KENN off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #105	26.7 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.70 #93	6.54 #124	KENN
PPA / play	+0.13 #88	+0.21 #118	KENN
Success rate	44% #71	44% #106	KENN

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: ARST offense

	ARST off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #89	24.3 #87	Even
Yards / play	6.39 #55	5.79 #106	ARST
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	+0.20 #117	Even
Success rate	46% #59	46% #117	ARST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	8.3 #47	7.0 #96	15.3 #81	5.0 #90	4.0 #114	9.0 #115
ARST allowed	2.3 #25	11.7 #123	14.0 #93	7.0 #103	5.7 #67	12.7 #95

ARST scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	1.0 #133	14.0 #21	15.0 #83	8.0 #45	4.7 #107	12.7 #79
KENN allowed	7.0 #108	7.0 #65	14.0 #93	7.0 #103	3.3 #21	10.3 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.