Arkansas State @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphgusts 19Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arkansas State

2-2 · Power #103

final

Final

Louisiana

3-1 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -4.5

✓ ARST W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 23–28 UL

✓ UL (64%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUL -4

CloseUL -4.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -4

0.5 → UL

CloseUL -4.5

0.5 pts toward Louisiana

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -4 · closed UL -4.5 · moved 0.5 toward ULmodel UL -8

model UL -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (238 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUL -4

CloseUL -4.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 4.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 4.7; 46.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Very close	ECU vs ARMY 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	28–6	W	U52.5
Very close	USM vs TROY 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	18–28	L	U50.5
Very close	CONN vs GAST 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	34–27	P	O48
Very close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75
Very close	FIU vs DEL 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	16–38	L	U54.5
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Very close	LT vs WKU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-5	27–28	L	O49.5
Very close	LT vs USM 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	30–20	W	U51.5
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–0	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST LWLL	1-3	25%	0-2	0-2
UL WWPW	3-0-1	100%	1-0-1	2-0-1

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2
UL UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UL	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ARST 1–2 UL UL leads · 3 games since 2023 · UL has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 20 2025	Louisiana 34 @ Arkansas State 30	ARST -2.5	UL W
Nov 9 2024	Arkansas State 19 @ Louisiana 55	UL -14.5	UL W
Nov 4 2023	Louisiana 17 @ Arkansas State 37	UL -7	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−10.2 →−10.3▼ 0.1#110

UL−10.9 →−5.3▲ 5.6#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ARST

Longer bar = better

#71

Offense

◀ ARST better

#95

#103

Defense

UL better ▶

#32

+0.5 #47

Turnovers

UL better ▶

+1.0 #27

58 plays #128

Pace

UL faster ▶

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	ARST off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #93	19.3 #41	UL
Yards / play	6.25 #54	4.46 #16	UL
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	−0.13 #8	UL
Success rate	46% #47	40% #61	Even

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #68	23.5 #72	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #105	6.23 #121	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.17 #105	Even
Success rate	39% #112	45% #113	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	0.8 #136	12.3 #34	13.0 #94	7.8 #40	4.3 #115	12.0 #84
UL allowed	1.8 #11	8.8 #93	10.5 #58	1.8 #14	7.0 #92	8.8 #42

UL scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.0 #94	12.3 #34	17.3 #62	5.3 #90	8.3 #46	13.5 #71
ARST allowed	1.8 #11	10.5 #122	12.3 #79	7.0 #99	4.3 #35	11.3 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.