Marshall @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:45 PM EDTWeek 5 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Marshall

3-1 · Power #114

final

Final

James Madison

4-0 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -14.5

✓ JMU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 19–35 JMU

✓ JMU (87%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -13.5

CloseJMU -14.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -13.5

1 → JMU

CloseJMU -14.5

1 pt toward James Madison

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -13.5 · closed JMU -14.5 · moved 1 toward JMUmodel JMU -21

model JMU -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 58% (144 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (331 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -13.5

CloseJMU -14.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 14.5-point home favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 45–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 55.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.5 against an average line of 15.2; 62.5 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Close	JMU vs GASO 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-15	35–10	W	U54.5
Close	NAVY vs AFA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	34–31	L	O51
Close	UNT vs USA 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	36–22	W	U63.5
Close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	44–17	W	O50
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	35–33	L	O48
Close	ODU vs CCU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-18.5	47–7	W	O53.5
Close	TOL vs MASS 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	38–23	L	O51
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	0-1
JMU WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: MRSH away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1
JMU UOUO	2-2	50%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 664 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
JMU	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MRSH 1–2 JMU JMU leads · 3 games since 2023 · JMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	James Madison 35 @ Marshall 23	JMU -13.5	MRSH W
Nov 30 2024	Marshall 35 @ James Madison 33	JMU -2.5	MRSH W
Oct 19 2023	James Madison 20 @ Marshall 9	JMU -5	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−5.9 →−11.2▼ 5.3#112

JMU+5.8 →+5.2▼ 0.6#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MRSH

Longer bar = better

JMU

#83

Offense

JMU better ▶

#44

#130

Defense

JMU better ▶

−0.8 #116

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+0.8 #36

65 plays #79

Pace

Even

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	MRSH off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #101	12.3 #11	JMU
Yards / play	5.71 #87	4.23 #15	JMU
PPA / play	+0.17 #68	−0.16 #7	JMU
Success rate	43% #74	30% #2	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	44.8 #7	32.5 #124	JMU
Yards / play	6.44 #46	6.78 #132	JMU
PPA / play	+0.21 #51	+0.36 #137	JMU
Success rate	44% #70	47% #128	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	7.8 #47	6.8 #105	14.5 #84	2.5 #126	6.5 #85	9.0 #118
JMU allowed	2.5 #24	4.0 #20	6.5 #15	1.8 #15	4.0 #29	5.8 #13

JMU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	13.8 #4	13.3 #23	27.0 #7	8.3 #38	9.5 #30	17.8 #26
MRSH allowed	12.0 #136	5.0 #35	17.0 #114	10.5 #134	5.0 #48	15.5 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.