Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Michigan State

Weather at kickoff84°F11 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

1-1 · Power #128

final

Final

Michigan State

1-0 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSU -17.5

✓ MSU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 15–33 MSU

✓ MSU (90%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMSU -15.5

CloseMSU -17.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSU -15.5

2 → MSU

CloseMSU -17.5

2 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open51.5

▼ 2

Close49.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSU -15.5 · closed MSU -17.5 · moved 2 toward MSUmodel MSU -18

model MSU -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 50% (135 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (296 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMSU -15.5

CloseMSU -17.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSU as a 17.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MSU won 35–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.4 against an average line of 18; 44.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-20.5	28–14	L	U45
Very close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Very close	ILL vs FAU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16	23–17	L	U45.5
Very close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Very close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Very close	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-20	48–0	W	U48.5
Very close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	BAY vs AFA 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-17	31–3	W	U41
Close	CAL vs SDSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-18.5	31–10	W	U48.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-19.5	30–27	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WL	1-1	50%	—	—
MSU P	0-0-1	—	0-0-1	0-0-1

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; MSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU UU	0-2	0%	1-1
MSU O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
MSU	2-8 20%	7-2-1 78%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−12.8 →−11.6▲ 1.2#115

MSU+0.6 →+2.5▲ 1.9#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

EMU

Longer bar = better

MSU

#106

Offense

Even

#98

#72

Defense

Even

#82

+1.0 #34

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #35

68 plays #68

Pace

MSU faster ▶

83 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: MSU defense

	EMU off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #84	20.0 #83	Even
Yards / play	4.63 #111	6.66 #116	Even
PPA / play	−0.06 #114	+0.10 #93	MSU
Success rate	35% #113	29% #36	MSU

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	MSU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #77	22.0 #91	Even
Yards / play	4.78 #107	5.15 #77	EMU
PPA / play	+0.01 #103	−0.01 #66	EMU
Success rate	38% #106	34% #55	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.