South Carolina @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

2-3 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Florida

4-1 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

FLA -10.5

✓ SC W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 25–35 FLA

✗ FLA (77%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFLA -14.5

CloseFLA -10.5

Total57.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -14.5

4 → SC

CloseFLA -10.5

4 pts toward South Carolina

Total

Open57.5

▲ 2

Close59.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -14.5 · closed FLA -10.5 · moved 4 toward SCmodel FLA -9

model FLA -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 45% (170 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (82 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFLA -14.5

CloseFLA -10.5

Total57.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 10.5-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SC won 38–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 57 points stayed under 59.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 8.6; 61.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs FLA 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	34–24	L	O53.5
Close	UGA vs MISS 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	43–35	W	O56.5
Close	TEX vs ARK 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	52–37	W	O58
Close	LOU vs WAKE 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	27–30	L	U57.5
Close	CLEM vs UNC 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–20	W	U59.5
Close	USC vs WASH 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	25–21	L	U58.5
Close	ALA vs TENN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	37–20	W	U60.5
Close	VAN vs UK 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7	45–17	W	O53.5
Close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Close	WASH vs RUTG 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	38–19	W	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	0-1
FLA WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; FLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC OUOOO	4-1	80%	2-3
FLA OUOOO	4-1	80%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 48% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
FLA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SC 11–31 FLA (3 tied) FLA leads · 45 games since 1911 · SC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Florida 41 @ South Carolina 39	SC -1.5	FLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+9.4 →+9.2▼ 0.2#32

FLA+10.9 →+15.2▲ 4.3#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

FLA

#43

Offense

FLA better ▶

#11

#90

Defense

Even

#95

−1.2 #132

Turnovers

FLA better ▶

+0.8 #28

73 plays #14

Pace

◀ SC faster

69 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: SC offense

	SC off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #27	27.2 #103	SC
Yards / play	6.73 #26	5.68 #94	SC
PPA / play	+0.17 #67	+0.09 #77	Even
Success rate	45% #51	45% #105	SC

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	46.2 #5	26.8 #102	FLA
Yards / play	7.12 #11	5.40 #73	FLA
PPA / play	+0.35 #9	+0.19 #111	FLA
Success rate	50% #17	41% #75	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SC scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	8.2 #43	11.6 #34	19.8 #35	5.6 #82	10.8 #14	16.4 #32
FLA allowed	1.8 #14	10.2 #114	12.0 #74	7.8 #117	7.4 #102	15.2 #120

FLA scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	9.4 #32	16.6 #6	26.0 #8	9.8 #16	10.4 #18	20.2 #13
SC allowed	2.8 #25	9.6 #107	12.4 #78	7.4 #107	5.4 #53	12.8 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.