Texas A&M @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

3-2 · Power #24

final

Final

Missouri

4-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -4.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 23–27 MIZ

✓ MIZ (61%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIZ -1.5

CloseMIZ -4.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -1.5

3 → MIZ

CloseMIZ -4.5

3 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -1.5 · closed MIZ -4.5 · moved 3 toward MIZmodel MIZ -2

model MIZ -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (244 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 49% (142 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIZ -1.5

CloseMIZ -4.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 4.5-point home favorite against TA&M, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 27–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 4.1; 40.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU vs MISS 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	26–34	L	O52.5
Very close	ORST vs UTAH 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	21–7	W	U44.5
Very close	VAN vs MIZ 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	17–10	W	U52.5
Close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	14–17	L	U49
Close	ISU vs ASU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	19–24	L	U48.5
Close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-5	23–0	W	U47
Close	ARIZ vs UTAH 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	42–18	W	O45.5
Close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	24–14	W	U51
Close	UGA vs TEX 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	35–10	W	U50.5
Close	IOWA vs PSU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	25–24	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M WWLLW	3-2	60%	0-1	0-1
MIZ LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: TA&M away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M UOOUU	2-3	40%	3-2
MIZ OOUUO	3-2	60%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MIZ	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TA&M 11–8 MIZ TA&M leads · 19 games since 1957 · MIZ has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	Texas A&M 38 @ Missouri 17	TA&M -6.5	TA&M W
Oct 5 2024	Missouri 10 @ Texas A&M 41	TA&M -2.5	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+19.7 →+14.5▼ 5.2#14

MIZ+13.4 →+14.0▲ 0.6#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TA&M

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#89

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#41

#67

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#33

+0.4 #49

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

+0.8 #29

71 plays #22

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	TA&M off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #64	20.0 #48	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #123	4.79 #38	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.10 #92	−0.03 #32	MIZ
Success rate	43% #76	34% #14	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #26	18.6 #38	Even
Yards / play	6.59 #38	5.79 #102	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.24 #40	+0.04 #53	Even
Success rate	44% #61	41% #74	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	6.0 #73	8.0 #88	14.0 #82	6.2 #71	11.6 #6	17.8 #26
MIZ allowed	5.4 #86	5.6 #41	11.0 #60	3.4 #38	5.6 #61	9.0 #41

MIZ scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	3.4 #110	18.2 #3	21.6 #24	7.6 #43	8.4 #42	16.0 #40
TA&M allowed	4.2 #63	3.4 #16	7.6 #21	10.4 #134	0.6 #1	11.0 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.