Kentucky @ Tennessee: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Kickoff forecast53°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

6-1 · Power #26

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Tennessee

6-1 · Power #11

projected

UK 25%

75% TENN

Spread

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Total

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model 53

Model line

TENN -9.5

TENN 75% to win

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Winner

Market

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Spread

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no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-0	—
TENN LWWLW	4-3	57%	3-2	—

Venue/role: UK away; TENN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
TENN UUUUU	1-6	14%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs FLA	W38–7WO
Nov 21	@ MIZ	L21–38LO
Nov 28	vs LOU	L0–41LU

Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ TA&M	W20–13WU
Nov 21	vs LSU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ VAN	L24–45LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UK 0–3 TENN TENN leads · 3 games since 2023 · TENN has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Tennessee 56 @ Kentucky 34	TENN -7.5	TENN W
Nov 2 2024	Kentucky 18 @ Tennessee 28	TENN -17.5	UK W
Oct 28 2023	Tennessee 33 @ Kentucky 27	TENN -4	TENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.5 →+11.5▲ 6.0#26

TENN+14.3 →+17.6▲ 3.3#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

TENN

#45

Offense

◀ UK better

#61

#79

Defense

TENN better ▶

#15

+1.6 #6

Turnovers

◀ UK better

+0.4 #42

64 plays #95

Pace

TENN faster ▶

69 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	UK off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #46	14.7 #11	TENN
Yards / play	6.07 #54	4.58 #14	TENN
PPA / play	+0.19 #51	−0.14 #4	TENN
Success rate	48% #29	37% #29	Even

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #42	25.9 #91	TENN
Yards / play	5.84 #69	5.25 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #66	+0.05 #53	Even
Success rate	43% #65	45% #113	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UK scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	6.0 #75	10.3 #46	16.3 #58	7.0 #43	7.1 #61	14.1 #55
TENN allowed	2.9 #22	2.9 #9	5.7 #5	3.9 #45	5.1 #44	9.0 #36

TENN scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	5.9 #76	8.1 #85	14.0 #83	10.4 #11	9.0 #29	19.4 #9
UK allowed	4.9 #73	8.7 #98	13.6 #93	4.3 #54	6.0 #64	10.3 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.