Florida @ Kentucky: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Florida

5-2 · Power #17

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Kentucky

6-1 · Power #26

projected

FLA 52%

48% UK

Spread

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Total

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model 58

Model line

FLA -0.5

FLA 52% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WWLLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
UK WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-1	—

Venue/role: FLA away; UK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA OOOUU	4-3	57%	5-2
UK OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
UK	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs VAN	W38–14W
Nov 27	@ FSU	W40–21WO

Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ MIZ	L21–38LO
Nov 28	vs LOU	L0–41LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

FLA 54–22 UK FLA leads · 76 games since 1917 · UK has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	Florida 7 @ Kentucky 38	FLA -5.5	UK W
Oct 19 2024	Kentucky 20 @ Florida 48	UK -2.5	FLA W
Sep 30 2023	Florida 14 @ Kentucky 33	UK -1	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+10.9 →+14.2▲ 3.3#17

UK+5.5 →+11.5▲ 6.0#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FLA

Longer bar = better

#32

Offense

Even

#45

#95

Defense

UK better ▶

#79

+0.3 #55

Turnovers

UK better ▶

+1.6 #6

71 plays #18

Pace

◀ FLA faster

64 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	39.6 #11	25.9 #91	FLA
Yards / play	6.31 #46	5.25 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #24	+0.05 #53	FLA
Success rate	46% #45	45% #113	FLA

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UK offense

	UK off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #46	28.3 #109	UK
Yards / play	6.07 #54	5.62 #87	UK
PPA / play	+0.19 #51	+0.11 #81	UK
Success rate	48% #29	44% #102	UK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.7 #42	13.7 #11	21.4 #17	8.4 #22	9.7 #18	18.1 #16
UK allowed	4.9 #72	8.7 #98	13.6 #93	4.3 #54	6.0 #64	10.3 #55

UK scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	6.0 #75	10.3 #47	16.3 #59	7.0 #43	7.1 #62	14.1 #55
FLA allowed	3.7 #43	9.7 #111	13.4 #90	7.6 #112	7.3 #97	14.9 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.