Auburn @ Ole Miss: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Kickoff forecast75°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Auburn

4-2 · Power #25

projected

Sat 12:45 PM ET

Ole Miss

5-1 · Power #12

projected

AUB 23%

77% MISS

Spread

MISS -10.5

no move since the open

Total

53.5

model 55.5

Spread edge

AUB by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 10:55 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenMISS -10.5

CurrentMISS -10.5

Total53.5

Last update10:55 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenMISS -10.5

no move

NowMISS -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

no move

Now53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -10.5 · unchangedmodel MISS -8.5

model MISS -8.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 45% (177 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 10:55 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenMISS -10.5

CurrentMISS -10.5

Total53.5

Last update10:55 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · current prices

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	AUB	MISS	Over	Under	AUB	MISS
DraftKingsDK	+10.5-110	-10.5-110	53.5-110	53.5-110	+320	-410

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed, updated 10:55 PM ET. One book so far. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 10.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.9 against an average line of 10.7; 50.5 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Very close	UNC vs DUKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-10	47–45	L	O53
Very close	CIN vs UCF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	20–11	L	U55.5
Very close	MISS vs SC 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13	30–14	W	U55.5
Very close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Very close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Very close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-11	21–6	W	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-2
MISS LWLWW	3-3	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UOUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
MISS UUOOU	3-3	50%	5-1

In 1493 games with totals 49.5–57.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%
MISS	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Auburn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs ARK	W33–24WO
Nov 14	@ MSST	W27–13WP
Nov 21	vs SAM	W45–13LU

Ole Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs UGA	W39–34WO
Nov 14	@ OU	W34–26WO
Nov 21	vs WOF	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AUB 0–1 MISS MISS leads · 1 game since 2023 · MISS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Ole Miss 28 @ Auburn 21	MISS -6.5	MISS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.9 →+11.8▼ 0.1#24

MISS+18.8 →+17.3▼ 1.5#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

AUB

Longer bar = better

MISS

#91

Offense

MISS better ▶

#19

#52

Defense

◀ AUB better

#91

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

◀ AUB better

−0.2 #87

71 plays #25

Pace

◀ AUB faster

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #84	23.8 #71	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #91	5.58 #80	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #92	+0.17 #109	Even
Success rate	41% #95	44% #104	Even

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #19	21.8 #55	MISS
Yards / play	6.52 #32	5.06 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #16	+0.03 #43	MISS
Success rate	51% #8	41% #64	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.2 #71	9.2 #67	15.3 #66	6.2 #68	5.3 #112	11.5 #91
MISS allowed	3.2 #33	2.8 #6	6.0 #7	9.8 #136	8.0 #109	17.8 #130

MISS scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	6.3 #65	15.3 #3	21.7 #14	4.8 #103	11.0 #7	15.8 #36
AUB allowed	4.0 #46	5.2 #29	9.2 #35	5.7 #85	7.0 #89	12.7 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.