Michigan @ Rutgers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Kickoff forecast66°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

Michigan

4-2 · Power #34

projected

Sat 12:30 PM ET

Rutgers

2-4 · Power #77

projected

MICH 78%

22% RUTG

Spread

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Total

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model 52

Model line

MICH -10.5

MICH 78% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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no open

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Opening line not available

Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH WWLLL	2-4	33%	0-1	—
RUTG LWWLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MICH away; RUTG home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
RUTG UOOOO	5-1	83%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
RUTG	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs MSU	W31–20LO
Nov 14	@ ORE	L17–38LO
Nov 21	vs UCLA	No meeting since 2023

Rutgers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ WIS	L7–42LO
Nov 14	vs NEB	L7–14LU
Nov 21	@ PSU	L36–40WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MICH 1–0 RUTG MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Rutgers 7 @ Michigan 31	MICH -24	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+14.6 →+8.8▼ 5.8#34

RUTG+2.3 →−3.1▼ 5.4#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MICH

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#97

Offense

RUTG better ▶

#54

#10

Defense

◀ MICH better

#127

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

◀ MICH better

−0.8 #127

58 plays #136

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

67 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #106	31.8 #119	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #105	6.58 #130	MICH
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.26 #128	MICH
Success rate	42% #82	48% #130	MICH

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	RUTG off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #58	16.2 #19	MICH
Yards / play	6.03 #56	4.11 #1	MICH
PPA / play	+0.16 #63	−0.10 #6	MICH
Success rate	47% #40	35% #14	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	3.5 #112	6.2 #108	9.7 #120	7.5 #36	5.5 #110	13.0 #75
RUTG allowed	9.2 #133	10.3 #119	19.5 #133	5.3 #78	7.0 #89	12.3 #83

RUTG scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	7.0 #50	6.7 #103	13.7 #87	9.2 #13	8.3 #45	17.5 #21
MICH allowed	4.5 #62	1.7 #1	6.2 #9	1.7 #8	8.3 #117	10.0 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.