Purdue @ Penn State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM EDTWeek 9 · at Penn State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast55°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Purdue

3-4 · Power #59

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Penn State

3-4 · Power #32

projected

PUR 22%

78% PSU

Spread

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Total

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model 54.5

Model line

PSU -11

PSU 78% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LLWWL	3-4	43%	1-1	—
PSU WLLLW	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PUR away; PSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR OOUOO	6-1	86%	3-4
PSU OOOUU	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
PSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Purdue

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs MD	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ IOWA	L14–20L
Nov 21	vs WIS	L6–52LO

Penn State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ WASH	W35–6WU
Nov 14	vs MINN	W26–25LO
Nov 21	vs RUTG	W40–36LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PUR 0–1 PSU PSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · PSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Penn State 49 @ Purdue 10	PSU -30.5	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−1.8 →+2.5▲ 4.3#59

PSU+12.7 →+9.2▼ 3.5#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

PUR

Longer bar = better

PSU

#54

Offense

◀ PUR better

#83

#128

Defense

PSU better ▶

#56

+0.6 #28

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #31

69 plays #44

Pace

◀ PUR faster

66 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #58	18.9 #31	PSU
Yards / play	5.94 #63	5.19 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #40	+0.10 #79	PUR
Success rate	45% #53	40% #56	Even

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #74	32.3 #123	PSU
Yards / play	5.78 #78	6.74 #133	PSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	+0.27 #129	PSU
Success rate	40% #98	47% #128	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	5.7 #81	8.1 #84	13.9 #85	7.1 #40	8.4 #43	15.6 #37
PSU allowed	2.9 #23	5.3 #31	8.1 #23	4.4 #58	6.3 #69	10.7 #65

PSU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.7 #60	9.3 #63	16.0 #61	6.3 #67	6.4 #81	12.7 #82
PUR allowed	6.4 #107	10.1 #117	16.6 #115	3.9 #45	9.7 #129	13.6 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.