Maryland @ Purdue: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Purdue · Conference game

Kickoff forecast64°F14 mphgusts 32DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Maryland

2-5 · Power #72

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Purdue

3-4 · Power #59

projected

MD 33%

67% PUR

Spread

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Total

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model 54.5

Model line

PUR -6

PUR 67% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-1	—
PUR LLWWL	3-4	43%	2-3	—

Venue/role: MD away; PUR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OOOOO	6-1	86%	2-5
PUR OOUOO	6-1	86%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	8-2 80%
PUR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Maryland

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs WIS	W27–10WU
Nov 21	@ USC	W29–28WO
Nov 28	vs PSU	L7–44LO

Purdue

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ IOWA	L14–20L
Nov 21	vs WIS	L6–52LO
Nov 28	@ IU	L3–56LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+0.7 →−0.7▼ 1.4#72

PUR−1.8 →+2.5▲ 4.3#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

PUR

#96

Offense

PUR better ▶

#53

#108

Defense

◀ MD better

#128

+0.4 #45

Turnovers

PUR better ▶

+0.6 #27

68 plays #54

Pace

Even

69 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #74	32.3 #123	MD
Yards / play	5.55 #93	6.74 #133	MD
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.27 #129	MD
Success rate	39% #110	47% #128	Even

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: PUR offense

	PUR off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #57	33.3 #129	PUR
Yards / play	5.94 #63	5.60 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #40	+0.15 #104	PUR
Success rate	45% #53	45% #117	PUR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MD scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	7.1 #48	10.6 #40	17.7 #42	5.9 #76	4.7 #117	10.6 #101
PUR allowed	6.4 #107	10.1 #117	16.6 #115	3.9 #45	9.7 #129	13.6 #105

PUR scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	5.7 #81	8.1 #85	13.9 #85	7.1 #40	8.4 #43	15.6 #37
MD allowed	6.0 #100	12.0 #129	18.0 #126	7.6 #112	7.7 #99	15.3 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.