Maryland @ USC: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at USC · Conference game

Maryland

2-5 · Power #72

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

USC

6-1 · Power #18

projected

MD 7%

93% USC

Spread

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Total

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model 60.5

Model line

USC -20.5

USC 93% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-1	—
USC LLLLW	2-5	29%	1-4	—

Venue/role: MD away; USC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OOOOO	6-1	86%	2-5
USC OOOUU	4-3	57%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	8-2 80%
USC	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Maryland

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs PSU	L7–44LO

USC

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ UCLA	W29–10LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MD 1–0 USC MD leads · 1 game since 2023 · MD has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	USC 28 @ Maryland 29	USC -6.5	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+0.7 →−0.7▼ 1.4#72

USC+17.6 →+14.0▼ 3.6#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

USC

#96

Offense

USC better ▶

#16

#108

Defense

USC better ▶

#83

+0.4 #45

Turnovers

◀ MD better

0.0 #69

68 plays #54

Pace

Even

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #74	25.1 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #93	5.95 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.13 #91	Even
Success rate	39% #110	40% #55	USC

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #26	33.3 #129	USC
Yards / play	6.67 #21	5.60 #82	USC
PPA / play	+0.33 #10	+0.15 #104	USC
Success rate	52% #7	45% #117	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MD scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	7.1 #48	10.6 #40	17.7 #42	5.9 #76	4.7 #117	10.6 #101
USC allowed	3.9 #44	5.9 #45	9.7 #46	6.9 #104	8.6 #120	15.4 #123

USC scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.9 #76	14.6 #6	20.4 #24	8.6 #19	7.4 #57	16.0 #33
MD allowed	6.0 #100	12.0 #129	18.0 #126	7.6 #112	7.7 #99	15.3 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.