Ohio State @ Nebraska: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Ohio State

6-1 · Power #2

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Nebraska

5-2 · Power #13

projected

OSU 73%

27% NEB

Spread

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Total

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model 53

Model line

OSU -8.5

OSU 73% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WLWLW	5-2	71%	3-0	—
NEB LWWWW	6-1	86%	4-1	—

Venue/role: OSU away; NEB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OOUOU	4-3	57%	6-1
NEB UUOUU	3-4	43%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NEB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Ohio State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs MICH	W27–9WU

Nebraska

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ IOWA	L16–40LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OSU 1–0 NEB OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Nebraska 17 @ Ohio State 21	OSU -25.5	NEB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+27.1 →+25.8▼ 1.3#2

NEB+6.6 →+15.6▲ 9.0#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

OSU

Longer bar = better

NEB

#14

Offense

◀ OSU better

#44

#10

Defense

Even

#12

+0.3 #56

Turnovers

NEB better ▶

+0.9 #13

69 plays #47

Pace

NEB faster ▶

72 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #12	15.4 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.95 #11	4.55 #13	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #21	−0.06 #12	Even
Success rate	50% #10	34% #7	Even

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	NEB off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #32	13.4 #6	OSU
Yards / play	5.97 #60	4.21 #3	OSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #26	−0.05 #13	Even
Success rate	44% #57	35% #18	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	12.3 #5	11.9 #26	24.1 #8	5.9 #77	9.3 #24	15.1 #39
NEB allowed	4.6 #67	2.4 #5	7.0 #12	2.7 #26	5.7 #60	8.4 #31

NEB scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	8.4 #32	10.9 #36	19.3 #30	4.0 #115	12.3 #2	16.3 #28
OSU allowed	2.3 #11	3.3 #12	5.6 #4	1.3 #5	6.6 #82	7.9 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.