Wisconsin @ Purdue: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Purdue · Conference game

Wisconsin

4-2 · Power #33

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Purdue

3-4 · Power #59

projected

WIS 62%

38% PUR

Spread

—

Total

—

model 50

Model line

WIS -4.5

WIS 62% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LWWWL	3-3	50%	1-1	—
PUR LLWWL	3-4	43%	2-3	—

Venue/role: WIS away; PUR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UOOUU	3-3	50%	4-2
PUR OOUOO	6-1	86%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
PUR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wisconsin

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs MINN	L7–17LU

Purdue

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ IU	L3–56LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WIS 2–0 PUR WIS leads · 2 games since 2023 · WIS has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Purdue 6 @ Wisconsin 52	WIS -11.5	WIS W
Sep 22 2023	Wisconsin 38 @ Purdue 17	WIS -6	WIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+3.3 →+9.2▲ 5.9#33

PUR−1.8 →+2.5▲ 4.3#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WIS

Longer bar = better

PUR

#85

Offense

PUR better ▶

#53

#17

Defense

◀ WIS better

#128

0.0 #76

Turnovers

PUR better ▶

+0.6 #27

59 plays #129

Pace

PUR faster ▶

69 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: WIS offense

	WIS off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #80	32.3 #123	WIS
Yards / play	5.96 #61	6.74 #133	WIS
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	+0.27 #129	WIS
Success rate	38% #121	47% #128	Even

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	PUR off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #57	16.7 #23	WIS
Yards / play	5.94 #63	4.32 #9	WIS
PPA / play	+0.22 #40	−0.04 #14	WIS
Success rate	45% #53	36% #22	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	6.2 #71	8.5 #79	14.7 #75	6.2 #68	6.7 #79	12.8 #78
PUR allowed	6.4 #107	10.1 #117	16.6 #115	3.9 #45	9.7 #129	13.6 #105

PUR scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	5.7 #81	8.1 #85	13.9 #85	7.1 #40	8.4 #43	15.6 #37
WIS allowed	4.3 #57	5.0 #28	9.3 #39	3.3 #36	4.0 #18	7.3 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.