Rutgers @ Penn State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Penn State · Conference game

Rutgers

2-4 · Power #77

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Penn State

3-4 · Power #32

projected

RUTG 12%

88% PSU

Spread

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Total

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model 55

Model line

PSU -17

PSU 88% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG LWWLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
PSU WLLLW	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: RUTG away; PSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG UOOOO	5-1	83%	2-4
PSU OOOUU	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
PSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rutgers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs MSU	W41–14WO

Penn State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ MD	W44–7WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

RUTG 0–2 PSU PSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · PSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Penn State 40 @ Rutgers 36	PSU -14	RUTG W
Nov 18 2023	Rutgers 6 @ Penn State 27	PSU -19.5	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+2.3 →−3.0▼ 5.3#79

PSU+12.7 →+9.2▼ 3.5#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

RUTG

Longer bar = better

PSU

#55

Offense

◀ RUTG better

#83

#127

Defense

PSU better ▶

#56

−0.8 #127

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+0.6 #31

67 plays #64

Pace

Even

66 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #59	18.9 #31	PSU
Yards / play	6.03 #56	5.19 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #63	+0.10 #79	Even
Success rate	47% #40	40% #56	Even

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #74	31.8 #119	PSU
Yards / play	5.78 #78	6.58 #130	PSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	+0.26 #128	PSU
Success rate	40% #98	48% #130	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	7.0 #50	6.7 #103	13.7 #87	9.2 #13	8.3 #45	17.5 #21
PSU allowed	2.9 #23	5.3 #31	8.1 #23	4.4 #58	6.3 #69	10.7 #65

PSU scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.7 #60	9.3 #63	16.0 #61	6.3 #67	6.4 #81	12.7 #82
RUTG allowed	9.2 #133	10.3 #119	19.5 #133	5.3 #78	7.0 #89	12.3 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.