Minnesota @ Penn State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Penn State · Conference game

Minnesota

4-2 · Power #65

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Penn State

3-4 · Power #32

projected

MINN 18%

82% PSU

Spread

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Total

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model 44

Model line

PSU -13

PSU 82% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LWWWL	4-2	67%	1-1	—
PSU WLLLW	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MINN away; PSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UUOUO	3-3	50%	4-2
PSU OOOUU	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
PSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Minnesota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs NU	L35–38WO
Nov 27	@ WIS	W17–7WU

Penn State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs RUTG	W40–36LO
Nov 28	@ MD	W44–7WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MINN 0–1 PSU PSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · PSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Penn State 26 @ Minnesota 25	PSU -11.5	MINN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN+1.1 →+0.5▼ 0.6#67

PSU+12.7 →+9.2▼ 3.5#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MINN

Longer bar = better

PSU

#96

Offense

Even

#83

#54

Defense

Even

#56

+0.2 #60

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+0.6 #31

63 plays #106

Pace

PSU faster ▶

66 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	MINN off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #73	18.9 #31	PSU
Yards / play	5.43 #107	5.19 #56	PSU
PPA / play	+0.03 #115	+0.10 #79	PSU
Success rate	41% #90	40% #56	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	PSU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #74	21.8 #54	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #78	5.01 #42	MINN
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	+0.05 #51	MINN
Success rate	40% #98	41% #70	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	8.0 #35	7.3 #95	15.3 #68	6.7 #55	6.8 #70	13.5 #66
PSU allowed	2.9 #23	5.3 #31	8.1 #23	4.4 #58	6.3 #69	10.7 #65

PSU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.7 #60	9.3 #63	16.0 #61	6.3 #67	6.4 #81	12.7 #82
MINN allowed	4.0 #46	9.2 #105	13.2 #85	1.7 #7	7.0 #89	8.7 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.