USC @ Indiana: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Indiana · Conference game

USC

6-1 · Power #18

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Indiana

6-1 · Power #7

projected

USC 22%

78% IU

Spread

IU -10

Total

58.5

model 58

Spread edge

IU by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentIU -10

Total58.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowIU -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now58.5

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 76%, covered 43% (159 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentIU -10

Total58.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 10-point home favorite against USC, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.4 against an average line of 10; 55.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs MISS 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-11	52–17	W	O58.75
Very close	ORE vs USC 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-11	42–27	W	O59.5
Close	ALA vs TENN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	37–20	W	U60.5
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-11	21–33	L	U62.5
Close	UTAH vs CIN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-11	45–14	W	O57.5
Close	ORE vs UCLA 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-10	15–17	L	U57.5
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	PSU vs SMU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-7.5	38–10	W	U52.5
Close	FLA vs SC 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-10.5	19–38	L	U59.5
Close	WASH vs RUTG 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	38–19	W	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LLLLW	2-5	29%	1-1	0-1
IU LLWLL	1-6	14%	0-5	1-5

Venue/role: USC away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OOOUU	4-3	57%	6-1
IU UOOUU	3-4	43%	6-1

In 1094 games with totals 54.5–62.5, 49% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
IU	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

USC

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs MD	L28–29LO
Nov 28	@ UCLA	W29–10LU

Indiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ WASH	W31–17WU
Nov 28	vs PUR	W56–3WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+17.6 →+14.0▼ 3.6#18

IU+23.3 →+21.7▼ 1.6#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

USC

Longer bar = better

#16

Offense

Even

#18

#82

Defense

IU better ▶

#14

0.0 #69

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+0.4 #44

69 plays #42

Pace

◀ USC faster

61 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #26	12.9 #4	IU
Yards / play	6.67 #21	4.32 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #10	−0.01 #24	Even
Success rate	52% #7	35% #19	Even

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #24	25.1 #78	IU
Yards / play	7.42 #4	5.95 #105	IU
PPA / play	+0.36 #2	+0.13 #91	IU
Success rate	47% #42	40% #55	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USC scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.9 #76	14.6 #6	20.4 #24	8.6 #19	7.4 #58	16.0 #33
IU allowed	1.9 #7	1.9 #2	3.7 #1	3.9 #45	5.3 #46	9.1 #40

IU scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	7.0 #50	10.7 #38	17.7 #42	8.3 #23	10.6 #9	18.9 #11
USC allowed	3.9 #44	5.9 #46	9.7 #46	6.9 #104	8.6 #120	15.4 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.