Oregon @ Ohio State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast60°F8 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oregon

4-2 · Power #9

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Ohio State

6-1 · Power #2

projected

ORE 30%

70% OSU

Spread

OSU -6

Total

—

model 51.5

Spread edge

OSU by 7.5

lean · context

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Spread

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentOSU -6

Total—

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowOSU -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (190 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentOSU -6

Total—

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 6-point home favorite against ORE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 6.5; 49.9 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN vs AUB 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	ALA vs OU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	21–23	L	U45.5
Very close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–17	W	O48
Close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	15–30	L	U57
Close	USC vs IOWA 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	26–21	L	U48.5
Close	UGA vs MISS 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	43–35	W	O56.5
Close	UGA vs TEX 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-3.5	35–10	W	U50.5
Close	ALA vs TENN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	37–20	W	U60.5
Close	MIA vs FLA 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & rest	-8.5	26–7	W	U51.5
Close	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	27–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
OSU WLWLW	5-2	71%	2-2	4-2

Venue/role: ORE away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OOOUU	4-2	67%	4-2
OSU OOUOU	4-3	57%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
OSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Oregon

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs MICH	W38–17WO
Nov 20	@ MSU	W31–10LU
Nov 28	vs WASH	W26–14WU

Ohio State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs NU	W31–7LU
Nov 21	@ NEB	W21–17LU
Nov 28	vs MICH	W27–9WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ORE 1–1 OSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 1 2024	Ohio State 41 @ Oregon 21	OSU -2.5	OSU W
Oct 12 2024	Ohio State 31 @ Oregon 32	OSU -3.5	ORE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+25.4 →+17.5▼ 7.9#11

OSU+27.1 →+25.8▼ 1.3#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ORE

Longer bar = better

OSU

#70

Offense

OSU better ▶

#14

#32

Defense

OSU better ▶

#10

0.0 #75

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

+0.3 #56

70 plays #31

Pace

◀ ORE faster

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	ORE off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #23	13.4 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #57	4.21 #3	OSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	−0.05 #13	OSU
Success rate	40% #102	35% #18	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #12	20.7 #42	OSU
Yards / play	6.95 #11	4.95 #32	OSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #21	−0.01 #29	Even
Success rate	50% #10	37% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	7.3 #45	9.2 #67	16.5 #58	8.5 #20	12.0 #3	20.5 #6
OSU allowed	2.3 #11	3.3 #12	5.6 #4	1.3 #5	6.6 #82	7.9 #23

OSU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	12.3 #5	11.9 #26	24.1 #8	5.9 #77	9.3 #24	15.1 #39
ORE allowed	2.2 #10	9.2 #105	11.3 #60	5.0 #72	4.3 #25	9.3 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.