Penn State @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Penn State

3-3 · Power #32

final

Final

Michigan

3-2 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -6

✓ PSU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 20–25 MICH

✓ MICH (64%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMICH -6.5

CloseMICH -6

Total51.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -6.5

0.5 → PSU

CloseMICH -6

0.5 pts toward Penn State

Total

Open51.5

▼ 8

Close43.5

Down 8 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -6.5 · closed MICH -6 · moved 0.5 toward PSUmodel MICH -1.5

model MICH -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (184 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMICH -6.5

CloseMICH -6

Total51.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 6-point home favorite against PSU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 21–18; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 5; 44 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN vs ISU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	10–30	L	U42.5
Close	LSU vs FLA 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-5	20–10	W	U47.5
Close	SMU vs LOU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	38–6	W	U49.5
Close	NEB vs RUTG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.25	14–7	W	U40
Close	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	10–48	L	O47
Close	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5
Loose	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Loose	SC vs MSST 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6	37–30	W	O47
Loose	ILL vs DUKE 2026 · Week 2 · loose	-6	27–31	L	O51.5
Loose	UTSA vs USF 2026 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & season form	-5.5	31–24	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU LWLLL	2-4	33%	0-2	0-1
MICH LWWLL	2-3	40%	2-2	1-3

Venue/role: PSU away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3
MICH UUOUU	1-4	20%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 54% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MICH	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PSU 0–1 MICH MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Michigan 24 @ Penn State 15	MICH -4.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+12.7 →+10.3▼ 2.4#28

MICH+14.6 →+9.3▼ 5.3#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

PSU

Longer bar = better

MICH

#71

Offense

◀ PSU better

#96

#59

Defense

MICH better ▶

+0.8 #23

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

−0.8 #122

65 plays #85

Pace

◀ PSU faster

59 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	PSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #65	15.8 #20	MICH
Yards / play	6.03 #63	4.02 #2	MICH
PPA / play	+0.17 #60	−0.10 #7	MICH
Success rate	40% #97	33% #6	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	MICH off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #102	18.5 #32	PSU
Yards / play	5.39 #106	5.12 #56	PSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.10 #81	Even
Success rate	42% #79	40% #66	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	7.3 #52	10.8 #40	18.2 #47	7.3 #46	5.0 #113	12.3 #81
MICH allowed	4.8 #75	2.0 #4	6.8 #12	2.0 #13	7.0 #86	9.0 #39

MICH scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	4.2 #103	7.4 #97	11.6 #104	6.2 #67	5.2 #111	11.4 #92
PSU allowed	3.3 #34	6.2 #47	9.5 #38	2.8 #28	6.2 #68	9.0 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.