Indiana @ Michigan: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Michigan · Conference game

Kickoff forecast59°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Indiana

6-1 · Power #7

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Michigan

4-2 · Power #34

projected

IU 72%

28% MICH

Spread

IU -7.5

earliest IU -6.5

Total

42.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

IU by 4

lean · context

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenIU -6.5

CurrentIU -7.5

Total52.5 → 42.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenIU -6.5

1 → IU

NowIU -7.5

1 pt toward Indiana

Total

Open52.5

▼ 10

Now42.5

Down 10 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened IU -6.5 · now IU -7.5 · moved 1 toward IUmodel IU -11.5

model IU -11.5

Openline modelNow

↗ Line toward model

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: IU by 5.2 pts (open -6.5, now -7.5). In 2025–2026, with a 5+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 77.9% of the 181 games where the line moved (197 at that gap), but those sides covered 55.4% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 52% (176 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenIU -6.5

CurrentIU -7.5

Total52.5 → 42.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:04

Indiana at Michigan: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 7:33 PM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

This line has shifted toward Indiana. Indiana heads to Michigan for a Saturday kickoff at 12 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have Indiana 7th and Michigan 34th. That’s about 13 points better than Michigan on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Indiana has dropped from 4th to 7th, while Michigan has fallen from 15th to 34th. Kickoff forecast at Michigan Stadium: 59 degrees, dry, wind 4 miles per hour. Indiana has the better offense, 18th to 97th. The defenses are close: 14th and 10th. Indiana is 1 and 6 against the spread this season. Indiana is 1 and 5 against the spread as favorite. Our model projects Indiana 27, Michigan 19, with a 72 percent win chance. Indiana is favored by 7.5, up from 6.5 at the open, through the key number 7, toward our model. The total opened at 52.5 and sits at 42.5. Our model makes it Indiana by 11.5, with a total near 46.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	IU	MICH	Over	Under	IU	MICH
BetMGMMGM	-7-120	+7-108	42.5-112	42.5-108	-295	+240
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-7-113	+7-107	42.5-110	42.5-110	-280	+230
BetRiversBetRivers	-7.5-107	+7.5-117	42.5-113	42.5-110	-315	+240
BetUSBetUS	-7-115	+7-105	42.5-110	42.5-110	-280	+235
BovadaBovada	-7-115	+7-105	43-110	43-110	-290	+240
DraftKingsDK	-7.5-105	+7.5-115	42.5-115	42.5-105	-298	+240
FanDuelFD	-7.5-105	+7.5-115	42.5-114	42.5-106	-310	+245
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-7-109	+7-103	42.5-108	42.5-108	-280	+230
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-7-110	+7-110	42.5-110	42.5-110	-295	+230

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

2 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	IU	MICH	Over	Under
DraftKingsDK	-3.5-115	+3.5-105	20.5-112	20.5-108
FanDuelFD	-3.5-115	+3.5-105	20.5-114	20.5-106

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

IU -7.5

MICH +7.5

Bets62% 38%

Money50% 50%

Money is 12 pts ahead of bets on MICH +7.5

Winner

MICH

Bets94% 6%

Money93% 7%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like IU as a 7.5-point road favorite at MICH, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 8.1; 44.2 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USC @ MINN 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	17–24	L	U45.5
Loose	ND @ BYU 2026 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Loose	OSU @ MICH 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	27–9	W	U43
Loose	TEX @ FLA 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-4.5	21–29	L	O42.5
Loose	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LLWLL	1-6	14%	1-1	1-5
MICH WWLLL	2-4	33%	2-3	1-0

Venue/role: IU away, as favorite; MICH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UOOUU	3-4	43%	6-1
MICH UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

In 599 games with totals 38.5–46.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
MICH	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Indiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs MINN	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs USC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	@ WASH	W31–17WU

Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ RUTG	W31–7PU
Nov 7	vs MSU	W31–20LO
Nov 14	@ ORE	L17–38LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IU 11–62 MICH MICH leads · 73 games since 1900 · IU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Michigan 15 @ Indiana 20	IU -14.5	MICH W
Oct 14 2023	Indiana 7 @ Michigan 52	MICH -32.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU+23.3 →+22.1▼ 1.2#7

MICH+14.6 →+9.1▼ 5.5#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

MICH

#18

Offense

◀ IU better

#97

#14

Defense

Even

#10

+0.4 #44

Turnovers

◀ IU better

−0.5 #103

61 plays #123

Pace

Even

58 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #24	16.2 #19	Even
Yards / play	7.42 #4	4.11 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #2	−0.10 #6	Even
Success rate	47% #42	35% #14	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	MICH off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #106	12.9 #4	IU
Yards / play	5.43 #106	4.32 #8	IU
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	−0.01 #24	IU
Success rate	42% #82	35% #19	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

IU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	7.0 #50	10.7 #38	17.7 #42	8.3 #23	10.6 #9	18.9 #11
MICH allowed	4.5 #62	1.7 #1	6.2 #9	1.7 #7	8.3 #117	10.0 #51

MICH scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	3.5 #112	6.2 #108	9.7 #120	7.5 #36	5.5 #110	13.0 #76
IU allowed	1.9 #7	1.9 #2	3.7 #1	3.9 #45	5.3 #46	9.1 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.