Florida vs Georgia: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · Neutral site · Conference game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Florida

5-2 · Power #17

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Georgia

6-1 · Power #4

projected

FLA 23%

77% UGA

Spread

UGA -10.5

open UGA -12.5

Total

56.5

model 59.5

Spread edge

FLA by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUGA -12.5

CurrentUGA -10.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUGA -12.5

2 → FLA

NowUGA -10.5

2 pts toward Florida

Total

Open53.5

▲ 3

Now56.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -12.5 · now UGA -10.5 · moved 2 toward FLAmodel UGA -10

model UGA -10

Openline modelNow

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (274 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUGA -12.5

CurrentUGA -10.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

2 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	FLA	UGA	Over	Under	FLA	UGA
DraftKingsDK	+10.5-115	-10.5-105	56.5-110	56.5-110	+320	-410
FanDuelFD	+9.5+100	-9.5-122	55.5-110	55.5-110	+320	-420

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 9:54 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 10.5-point neutral-site favorite against FLA, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 11.2; 56 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA vs FLA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	43–20	W	O50
Close	TEX vs ASU 2024 · Postseason · close	-13.5	39–31	L	O52.5
Close	UGA vs FLA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-14.5	34–20	L	O52.5
Close	PSU vs BOIS 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total	-12	31–14	W	U54.5
Close	UTAH vs NEB 2025 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-13.5	44–22	W	O51.5
Loose	UGA vs FLA 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-7	24–20	L	U50.5
Loose	LSU vs WIS 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar total & spread	-9.5	35–31	L	O58.5
Loose	WASH vs BOIS 2025 · Postseason · loose · similar total	-10	38–10	W	U55.5
Loose	PSU vs MISS 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	25–38	L	O52.5
Loose	TTU vs BYU 2025 · Week 15 · loose	-12.5	34–7	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
FLA WWLLW	4-3	57%	—	1-0
UGA WWLWL	5-2	71%	—	4-2

Venue/role: FLA neutral, as underdog; UGA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA OOOUU	4-3	57%	5-2
UGA OOOUO	6-1	86%	6-1

In 1299 games with totals 52.5–60.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
UGA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs OU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ UK	L7–38LO
Nov 21	vs VAN	W38–14W

Georgia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ MISS	L34–39LO
Nov 14	vs MIZ	W30–21LU
Nov 21	@ SC	W24–14LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

FLA 0–3 UGA UGA leads · 3 games since 2023 · UGA has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Georgia 24 @ Florida 20	UGA -6.5	FLA W
Nov 2 2024	Florida 20 @ Georgia 34	UGA -14.5	FLA W
Oct 28 2023	Georgia 43 @ Florida 20	UGA -14	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+10.9 →+14.2▲ 3.3#17

UGA+22.1 →+23.6▲ 1.5#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

FLA

Longer bar = better

UGA

#32

Offense

UGA better ▶

#95

Defense

UGA better ▶

#18

+0.3 #55

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #47

71 plays #18

Pace

◀ FLA faster

61 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Even matchup

	FLA off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	39.6 #11	15.9 #16	Even
Yards / play	6.31 #46	4.32 #7	UGA
PPA / play	+0.25 #24	0.00 #34	Even
Success rate	46% #45	35% #16	UGA

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	43.0 #2	28.3 #109	UGA
Yards / play	7.68 #2	5.62 #87	UGA
PPA / play	+0.33 #12	+0.11 #81	UGA
Success rate	53% #3	44% #102	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.7 #42	13.7 #11	21.4 #17	8.4 #22	9.7 #18	18.1 #16
UGA allowed	2.0 #8	6.1 #50	8.1 #23	2.3 #16	5.4 #48	7.7 #19

UGA scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	12.4 #4	13.0 #16	25.4 #4	7.9 #29	9.7 #18	17.6 #20
FLA allowed	3.7 #43	9.7 #111	13.4 #90	7.6 #112	7.3 #97	14.9 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.