Arizona State @ BYU: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at BYU · Conference game

Kickoff forecast58°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

3-3 · Power #66

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

BYU

6-0 · Power #14

projected

ASU 11%

89% BYU

Spread

BYU -16.5

open BYU -17.5

Total

51.5

model 50

Spread edge

BYU by 4.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 10:55 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBYU -17.5

CurrentBYU -16.5

Total51.5

Last update10:55 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenBYU -17.5

1 → ASU

NowBYU -16.5

1 pt toward Arizona State

Total

Open51.5

no move

Now51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -17.5 · now BYU -16.5 · moved 1 toward ASUmodel BYU -21

model BYU -21

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moved awayModel vs the opening line: BYU by 3.6 pts (open -17.5, now -16.5). In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 70% of the 390 games where the line moved (444 at that gap), but those sides covered 52.2% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 51% (151 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (398 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 10:55 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBYU -17.5

CurrentBYU -16.5

Total51.5

Last update10:55 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · current prices

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	ASU	BYU	Over	Under	ASU	BYU
DraftKingsDK	+16.5-105	-16.5-115	51.5-110	51.5-110	+550	-800

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed, updated 10:55 PM ET. One book so far. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 16.5-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 51%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 16.6 against an average line of 16; 61.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs CAL 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-18.5	26–29	L	O49
Very close	BYU vs UCF 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	41–21	W	O46.5
Very close	UTAH vs KSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-17.5	51–47	L	O52.5
Very close	WASH vs PUR 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	49–13	W	O51.5
Very close	USC vs RUTG 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.75	42–20	W	O56.25
Very close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	44–17	W	O50
Very close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Very close	UGA vs UK 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-19.5	35–14	W	P49
Very close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	38–21	W	O50
Very close	GT vs SYR 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	41–16	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU LWLLL	2-4	33%	0-2	0-2
BYU WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	5-0

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; BYU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OUOUO	4-2	67%	3-3
BYU UOUUO	3-3	50%	6-0

In 1585 games with totals 47.5–55.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
BYU	9-1 90%	8-1 89%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arizona State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs COLO	W42–17WO
Nov 14	@ UCF	W35–31WO
Nov 21	vs OKST	W42–21WO

BYU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ UTAH	W24–21WU
Nov 14	vs BAY	W34–28WO
Nov 21	@ KU	L13–17LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ASU 21–8 BYU ASU leads · 29 games since 1935 · ASU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	BYU 23 @ Arizona State 28	ASU -3.5	ASU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+6.4 →+0.3▼ 6.1#70

BYU+10.7 →+15.4▲ 4.7#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ASU

Longer bar = better

BYU

#68

Offense

BYU better ▶

#23

#96

Defense

BYU better ▶

#18

−0.7 #116

Turnovers

BYU better ▶

+0.5 #40

68 plays #56

Pace

◀ ASU faster

62 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	ASU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #56	15.2 #14	BYU
Yards / play	6.20 #51	4.42 #11	BYU
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	−0.01 #27	BYU
Success rate	44% #60	35% #20	BYU

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: BYU offense

	BYU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #40	32.0 #121	BYU
Yards / play	6.79 #18	5.61 #84	BYU
PPA / play	+0.30 #17	+0.13 #92	BYU
Success rate	50% #15	42% #85	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	9.2 #22	9.0 #72	18.2 #40	9.2 #13	4.0 #123	13.2 #70
BYU allowed	3.3 #35	4.0 #19	7.3 #16	2.2 #13	5.7 #57	7.8 #20

BYU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	9.3 #19	12.2 #23	21.5 #16	6.3 #65	5.7 #103	12.0 #88
ASU allowed	8.7 #130	8.7 #96	17.3 #120	4.7 #67	10.0 #132	14.7 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.