Arizona State @ UCF: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at UCF · Conference game

Arizona State

3-3 · Power #66

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

UCF

3-3 · Power #55

projected

ASU 32%

68% UCF

Spread

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Total

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model 50.5

Model line

UCF -6.5

UCF 68% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU LWLLL	2-4	33%	0-2	—
UCF WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: ASU away; UCF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OUOUO	4-2	67%	3-3
UCF UOUUO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arizona State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs OKST	W42–21WO
Nov 28	@ ARIZ	L7–23LU

UCF

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs ISU	L35–38WO
Nov 28	@ COLO	L21–48LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ASU 2–0 UCF ASU leads · 2 games since 2002 · ASU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	UCF 31 @ Arizona State 35	ASU -2.5	ASU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+6.4 →+0.3▼ 6.1#70

UCF+0.7 →+3.5▲ 2.8#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ASU

Longer bar = better

UCF

#68

Offense

Even

#80

#96

Defense

UCF better ▶

#48

−0.7 #116

Turnovers

UCF better ▶

+0.7 #25

68 plays #56

Pace

◀ ASU faster

61 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #56	21.7 #50	Even
Yards / play	6.20 #51	5.07 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	0.00 #33	UCF
Success rate	44% #60	41% #60	Even

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #52	32.0 #121	UCF
Yards / play	5.83 #70	5.61 #84	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #99	+0.13 #92	Even
Success rate	40% #100	42% #85	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	9.2 #22	9.0 #72	18.2 #40	9.2 #13	4.0 #123	13.2 #70
UCF allowed	4.0 #46	7.2 #71	11.2 #55	3.8 #41	6.7 #84	10.5 #61

UCF scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	11.0 #12	6.2 #108	17.2 #49	8.2 #24	6.3 #87	14.5 #49
ASU allowed	8.7 #130	8.7 #96	17.3 #120	4.7 #67	10.0 #132	14.7 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.