Arkansas State @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F12 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

2-4 · Power #103

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

1-4 · Power #127

final

Closing spread

ARST -5.5

✓ ARST W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 31–26 USM

✓ ARST (64%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARST -6.5

CloseARST -5.5

Total55.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -6.5

1 → USM

CloseARST -5.5

1 pt toward Southern Miss

Total

Open55.5

▲ 6

Close61.5

Up 6 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened ARST -6.5 · closed ARST -5.5 · moved 1 toward USMmodel ARST -3.5

model ARST -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 47% (180 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (389 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARST -6.5

CloseARST -5.5

Total55.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	ARST	USM	Over	Under	ARST	USM
DraftKingsDK	-5.5-112	+5.5-108	61.5-108	61.5-112	-218	+180

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 5.5-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 23–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 61.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 4.2; 56 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MRSH @ APP 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-4	24–26	L	U56.5
Close	APP @ ODU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	21–28	L	U56
Close	HAW @ USU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form	-2.5	10–55	L	O62
Close	ARST @ KENN 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	21–28	L	U58
Close	GASO @ BALL 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-6	40–3	W	U61
Close	KENN @ JXST 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-3.5	26–35	L	O56
Close	ARST @ USM 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-7	44–28	W	O56.5
Loose	UTSA @ RICE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	27–29	L	O51
Loose	UNT @ TLSA 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-2	35–28	W	U69.5
Loose	OHIO @ CMU 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	27–25	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST WLLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-2
USM WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: ARST away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OUUUO	3-3	50%	2-4
USM OUOUO	3-2	60%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 47% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
USM	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ARST 2–1 USM ARST leads · 3 games since 2023 · USM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	Southern Miss 27 @ Arkansas State 21	USM -6.5	ARST W
Oct 19 2024	Arkansas State 44 @ Southern Miss 28	ARST -7	ARST W
Sep 23 2023	Southern Miss 37 @ Arkansas State 44	USM -7	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−10.2 →−9.9▲ 0.3#108

USM−8.2 →−15.3▼ 7.1#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ARST

Longer bar = better

USM

#53

Offense

◀ ARST better

#77

#120

Defense

Even

#123

+0.2 #63

Turnovers

◀ ARST better

−0.2 #90

59 plays #126

Pace

USM faster ▶

70 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: ARST offense

	ARST off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #75	34.6 #131	ARST
Yards / play	6.34 #44	6.41 #124	ARST
PPA / play	+0.14 #71	+0.24 #124	ARST
Success rate	49% #21	45% #112	ARST

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USM offense

	USM off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #87	28.8 #112	USM
Yards / play	5.94 #70	6.34 #123	USM
PPA / play	+0.09 #89	+0.22 #119	USM
Success rate	44% #62	47% #127	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	1.7 #134	13.3 #15	15.0 #73	6.8 #53	6.3 #87	13.2 #72
USM allowed	11.6 #137	8.8 #99	20.4 #134	8.0 #117	6.2 #69	14.2 #114

USM scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	2.0 #133	9.2 #66	11.2 #107	11.0 #7	4.2 #121	15.2 #42
ARST allowed	4.7 #65	10.3 #117	15.0 #105	7.7 #114	6.2 #66	13.8 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.