Georgia State @ Arkansas State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast75°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

4-2 · Power #91

projected

Sat 7:00 PM ET

Arkansas State

3-4 · Power #103

projected

GAST 56%

44% ARST

Spread

GAST -2.5

open GAST -1.5

Total

57.5

model 59

Spread edge

ARST by 1.5

no lean

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenGAST -1.5

CurrentGAST -2.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenGAST -1.5

1 → GAST

NowGAST -2.5

1 pt toward Georgia State

Total

Open55.5

▲ 2

Now57.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened GAST -1.5 · now GAST -2.5 · moved 1 toward GASTmodel GAST -1

model GAST -1

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (289 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (352 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenGAST -1.5

CurrentGAST -2.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:11

Georgia State at Arkansas State: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:23 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

This line has shifted toward Georgia State. Georgia State visits Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Georgia State sits 91st, Arkansas State 103rd. That’s about 3.5 points better than Arkansas State on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Georgia State has moved up from 124th to 91st, while Arkansas State has climbed from 106th to 103rd. Kickoff forecast at Centennial Bank Stadium: 74 degrees, dry, wind 5 miles per hour. On offense, Georgia State ranks 27th and Arkansas State 65th. Georgia State has the better defense, 59th to 107th. Georgia State plays at the faster pace. Georgia State is 3 and 0 against the spread as favorite. Georgia State is 5 and 1 against the spread this season. The model has Georgia State winning 31 to 28, a 56 percent chance. Georgia State is favored by 2.5, up from 1.5 at the open, away from our model. The total opened at 55.5 and sits at 57.5. Our model makes it Georgia State by 1, with a total near 59. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	GAST	ARST	Over	Under	GAST	ARST
BetMGMMGM	-2-110	+2-110	58.5-105	58.5-115	-125	+105
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-2-110	+2-110	57.5-113	57.5-107	-126	+106
BetRiversBetRivers	-2-113	+2-110	59.5-108	59.5-114	-129	+105
BetUSBetUS	-2-110	+2-110	58-110	58-110	-125	+105
BovadaBovada	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	58-110	58-110	-135	+115
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	57.5-118	57.5-102	-135	+114
FanDuelFD	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	58.5-114	58.5-106	-125	+104
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-2-106	+2-106	57.5-112	57.5-105	-126	+106
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-2-110	+2-110	58-110	58-110	-127	+104

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	GAST	ARST	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-0.5-105	+0.5-115	30.5-102	30.5-118
DraftKingsDK	-0.5-105	+0.5-115	30.5-102	30.5-118
FanDuelFD	-1.5+104	+1.5-128	29.5-115	29.5-105

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

GAST

ARST

Bets64% 36%

Money88% 12%

Money is 24 pts ahead of bets on GAST

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 2.5-point road favorite at ARST, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.3 against an average line of 3.1; 62.5 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KENN @ LIB 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–42	W	O55.5
Very close	NAVY @ USF 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	28–7	W	U58.5
Very close	JXST @ WKU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-0.5	17–19	L	U62.5
Very close	WKU @ JXST 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	34–37	L	O56.5
Very close	RICE @ USF 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	29–42	L	O57.5
Very close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Very close	MRSH @ APP 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	24–26	L	U56.5
Very close	KENN @ JXST 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	26–35	L	O56
Very close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WWWWL	5-1	83%	2-1	3-0
ARST LLWLW	3-4	43%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: GAST away, as favorite; ARST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UOUOO	4-2	67%	4-2
ARST UUUOU	3-4	43%	3-4

In 1203 games with totals 53.5–61.5, 50% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ARST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs CCU	L27–40LO
Nov 7	@ APP	L20–41LO
Nov 14	vs GASO	L24–41LO

Arkansas State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs ULM	L16–28LU
Nov 14	@ CCU	L17–27LU
Nov 21	@ LT	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GAST 0–1 ARST ARST leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Arkansas State 27 @ Georgia State 20	GAST -2.5	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−14.5 →−5.1▲ 9.4#90

ARST−10.2 →−8.8▲ 1.4#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

GAST

Longer bar = better

ARST

#27

Offense

◀ GAST better

#65

#59

Defense

◀ GAST better

#107

−0.7 #115

Turnovers

ARST better ▶

+0.4 #43

69 plays #40

Pace

◀ GAST faster

62 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #25	26.6 #95	GAST
Yards / play	6.53 #30	6.14 #116	GAST
PPA / play	+0.24 #27	+0.15 #100	GAST
Success rate	48% #26	45% #115	GAST

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #82	24.0 #72	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #64	5.47 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	+0.05 #49	GAST
Success rate	47% #36	38% #43	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	9.2 #23	14.0 #8	23.2 #12	11.3 #6	2.0 #138	13.3 #68
ARST allowed	4.0 #46	9.9 #115	13.9 #96	6.6 #99	6.1 #65	12.7 #92

ARST scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	2.3 #131	12.9 #17	15.1 #70	5.9 #77	6.4 #81	12.3 #87
GAST allowed	7.3 #118	6.3 #56	13.7 #95	6.0 #87	4.3 #25	10.3 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.