Georgia State @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F14 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

4-1 · Power #92

final

Final

James Madison

6-0 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -7.5

✓ JMU W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 23–31 JMU

✓ JMU (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -12.5

CloseJMU -7.5

Total54.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -12.5

5 → GAST

CloseJMU -7.5

5 pts toward Georgia State

Total

Open54.5

▲ 3

Close57.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -12.5 · closed JMU -7.5 · moved 5 toward GASTmodel JMU -12

model JMU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (230 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (85 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -12.5

CloseJMU -7.5

Total54.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like JMU as a 7.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 49–22; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 9 similar games. 71 points went over 57.5, as in 4 of 9.

Favorite won

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 8.3; 56.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UL vs USA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	22–24	L	U60
Close	JMU vs CCU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-7	39–7	W	U59
Loose	ARIZ vs CIN 2026 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & total	-7	34–7	W	U56.5
Loose	KU vs CIN 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	34–37	L	O56
Loose	MSST vs TOL 2024 · Week 3 · loose	-10.5	17–41	L	O57.5
Loose	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Loose	WASH vs RUTG 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	38–19	W	U62.5
Loose	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · loose	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Loose	NCSU vs APP 2026 · Week 4 · loose	-12.5	41–31	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	2-0
JMU WWWWL	5-1	83%	3-0	4-1

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OUOUO	3-2	60%	4-1
JMU OUOOU	3-3	50%	6-0

Went over in Q3. Of 596 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
JMU	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

GAST 0–6 JMU JMU leads · 6 games since 2012 · JMU has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	James Madison 14 @ Georgia State 7	JMU -18.5	GAST W
Nov 9 2024	Georgia State 7 @ James Madison 38	JMU -15.5	JMU W
Nov 4 2023	James Madison 42 @ Georgia State 14	JMU -6	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−14.5 →−4.8▲ 9.7#85

JMU+5.8 →+3.9▼ 1.9#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

GAST

Longer bar = better

JMU

#25

Offense

Even

#31

#34

Defense

Even

#29

−0.6 #109

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+1.0 #16

70 plays #30

Pace

◀ GAST faster

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	39.4 #18	15.0 #16	Even
Yards / play	6.69 #23	4.92 #40	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #28	−0.02 #30	Even
Success rate	48% #29	37% #29	Even

When JMU has the ball

Even matchup

	JMU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	41.8 #10	19.0 #34	JMU
Yards / play	6.65 #26	5.00 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #35	−0.02 #29	Even
Success rate	45% #52	36% #26	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	9.6 #25	16.2 #4	25.8 #8	12.4 #6	1.2 #138	13.6 #70
JMU allowed	4.0 #53	4.3 #22	8.3 #24	1.7 #12	5.0 #43	6.7 #15

JMU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	11.3 #10	14.0 #15	25.3 #10	7.8 #37	8.7 #37	16.5 #29
GAST allowed	6.0 #99	3.4 #14	9.4 #36	5.8 #88	3.8 #21	9.6 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.