Troy @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F13 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Troy

3-2 · Power #98

final

Final

Louisiana

4-2 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -3

✓ UL W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 22–25 UL

✓ UL (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUL -3.5

CloseUL -3

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -3.5

0.5 → TROY

CloseUL -3

0.5 pts toward Troy

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UL -3.5 · closed UL -3 · moved 0.5 toward TROYmodel UL -2

model UL -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (313 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUL -3.5

CloseUL -3

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 3-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 33–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.3 against an average line of 3.2; 51.5 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2	26–41	L	O48
Very close	OHIO vs M-OH 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	38–19	W	O44.5
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	BC vs PITT 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	34–23	W	O50.5
Very close	ARMY vs TULN 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	20–17	L	U48.5
Very close	TEM vs CONN 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	20–34	L	U55.5
Very close	UL vs ARST 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	23–20	L	U49.5
Very close	TOL vs OHIO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-1.5	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	NCSU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	19–29	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LLWLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1
UL WPWLW	4-1-1	80%	1-1-1	2-1-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUUUO	1-4	20%	3-2
UL OUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%
UL	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

TROY 12–9 UL TROY leads · 21 games since 1994 · UL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Louisiana 23 @ Troy 35	TROY -7.5	TROY W
Nov 23 2024	Troy 30 @ Louisiana 51	UL -7.5	UL W
Nov 18 2023	Louisiana 24 @ Troy 31	TROY -16	UL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−8.5 →−5.5▲ 3.0#89

UL−10.9 →−5.9▲ 5.0#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TROY

Longer bar = better

#77

Offense

Even

#77

#75

Defense

UL better ▶

#54

+0.4 #41

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #50

73 plays #12

Pace

◀ TROY faster

65 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	TROY off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #77	21.5 #51	UL
Yards / play	5.87 #73	4.99 #45	UL
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	−0.01 #32	UL
Success rate	43% #77	43% #88	Even

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #69	24.0 #76	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #74	5.79 #98	UL
PPA / play	+0.12 #80	+0.07 #64	Even
Success rate	42% #86	40% #63	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	11.0 #13	9.6 #61	20.6 #25	3.2 #125	4.2 #121	7.4 #133
UL allowed	1.2 #2	9.7 #106	10.8 #53	1.7 #10	9.0 #123	10.7 #67

UL scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	4.5 #94	9.8 #54	14.3 #81	6.3 #65	8.8 #31	15.2 #43
TROY allowed	4.2 #56	7.6 #73	11.8 #69	8.8 #127	3.4 #13	12.2 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.