Nevada @ North Dakota State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at North Dakota State · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Nevada

2-3 · Power #109

final

Final

North Dakota State

5-1 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

NDSU -14.5

✓ NEV W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 16–31 NDSU

✓ NDSU (85%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNDSU -14.5

CloseNDSU -14.5

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNDSU -14.5

no move

CloseNDSU -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 4

Close42.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened NDSU -14.5 · unchangedmodel NDSU -14.5 matches the line

model NDSU -14.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 60% (155 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNDSU -14.5

CloseNDSU -14.5

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NEV	NDSU	Over	Under	NEV	NDSU
DraftKingsDK	+14.5-108	-14.5-112	42.5-112	42.5-108	+500	-700

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NDSU as a 14.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NDSU won 31–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 42.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 14.1; 52.1 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	35–33	L	O48
Very close	FRES vs HAW 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	20–21	L	U45.5
Close	NIU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & total	-13	20–23	L	O42.5
Close	DUKE vs CONN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	26–21	L	O46.5
Close	AFA vs WYO 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-12.5	34–27	L	O42
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	7–30	L	U47.5
Close	MRSH vs ODU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	41–35	L	O47
Close	NIU vs CMU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	24–16	L	P40
Close	ISU vs BAY 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-13	43–21	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1
NDSU LWLWL	3-3	50%	2-1	3-3

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; NDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV OUUOU	2-3	40%	2-3
NDSU UOUUU	1-5	17%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 313 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NDSUlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−13.2 →−11.5▲ 1.7#112

NDSU−11.9 →−1.6▲ 10.3#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NEV

Longer bar = better

NDSU

#83

Offense

Even

#78

#56

Defense

NDSU better ▶

#12

−1.2 #135

Turnovers

NDSU better ▶

+1.0 #17

65 plays #83

Pace

Even

64 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: NDSU defense

	NEV off	NDSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #78	10.3 #2	NDSU
Yards / play	5.83 #75	4.14 #5	NDSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	−0.17 #3	NDSU
Success rate	42% #85	38% #39	NDSU

When NDSU has the ball

Advantage: NEV defense

	NDSU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #70	22.0 #58	Even
Yards / play	5.67 #86	4.89 #37	NEV
PPA / play	+0.14 #76	+0.11 #84	Even
Success rate	42% #81	38% #45	NEV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the NDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	7.6 #47	3.2 #136	10.8 #111	7.6 #40	8.2 #47	15.8 #36
NDSU allowed	2.3 #13	2.7 #9	5.0 #4	0.5 #1	4.8 #40	5.3 #5

NDSU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NDSU scored	7.5 #49	11.5 #31	19.0 #36	6.8 #53	3.3 #134	10.2 #106
NEV allowed	4.0 #47	6.2 #51	10.2 #47	2.0 #13	8.0 #108	10.0 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.