San José State @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

San José State

3-3 · Power #111

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

1-5 · Power #136

final

Closing spread

SJSU -6.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 29–22 UTEP

✓ SJSU (68%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSJSU -10

CloseSJSU -6.5

Total52.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -10

3.5 → UTEP

CloseSJSU -6.5

3.5 pts toward UTEP

Total

Open52.5

▼ 6

Close46.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -10 · closed SJSU -6.5 · moved 3.5 toward UTEPmodel SJSU -7

model SJSU -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (205 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (122 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSJSU -10

CloseSJSU -6.5

Total52.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	SJSU	UTEP	Over	Under	SJSU	UTEP
DraftKingsDK	-6.5-120	+6.5+100	46.5-112	46.5-108	-270	+220

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 24–11; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 7.5; 46.4 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUFF @ KENT 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	24–6	W	U44
Close	BGSU @ KENT 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	21–24	L	U47.5
Close	JXST @ SHSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	29–27	L	O53.5
Close	CSU @ AFA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	21–13	W	U44
Close	UNLV @ NEV 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	45–27	W	O51.5
Close	UL @ CLT 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-9.5	34–7	W	U49.5
Close	NEV @ UTEP 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-10	30–13	W	U48.5
Loose	M-OH @ WMU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	34–21	W	O45
Loose	OHIO @ KENT 2026 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	13–10	L	U50.5
Loose	SJSU @ NEV 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	10–55	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU WLLWL	3-3	50%	3-0	0-2
UTEP WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-2	0-5

Venue/role: SJSU away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
UTEP OOUOU	3-3	50%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 53% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
UTEP	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−10.3 →−10.7▼ 0.4#109

UTEP−15.9 →−22.0▼ 6.1#135

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SJSU

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#105

Offense

◀ SJSU better

#136

#69

Defense

◀ SJSU better

#129

0.0 #71

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

−0.3 #93

68 plays #51

Pace

◀ SJSU faster

55 plays #138

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #116	39.5 #135	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #95	6.14 #115	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #96	+0.28 #130	SJSU
Success rate	39% #112	50% #134	SJSU

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	UTEP off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #135	23.5 #65	SJSU
Yards / play	4.72 #133	5.35 #66	SJSU
PPA / play	−0.18 #138	+0.05 #51	SJSU
Success rate	31% #137	43% #94	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	0.5 #138	7.3 #96	7.8 #129	4.3 #105	8.8 #32	13.2 #69
UTEP allowed	11.0 #137	7.0 #67	18.0 #124	13.0 #138	8.5 #118	21.5 #138

UTEP scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	2.3 #128	4.7 #128	7.0 #132	4.7 #100	4.2 #122	8.8 #123
SJSU allowed	1.7 #6	7.2 #68	8.8 #31	8.0 #119	6.2 #67	14.2 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.