North Dakota State @ New Mexico: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Kickoff forecast56°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

North Dakota State

6-1 · Power #74

projected

Sat 10:00 PM ET

New Mexico

5-1 · Power #56

projected

NDSU 34%

66% UNM

Spread

UNM -4.5

open UNM -3.5

Total

40.5

model 45.5

Spread edge

UNM by 6.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUNM -3.5

CurrentUNM -4.5

Total46.5 → 40.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUNM -3.5

1 → UNM

NowUNM -4.5

1 pt toward New Mexico

Total

Open46.5

▼ 6

Now40.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UNM -3.5 · now UNM -4.5 · moved 1 toward UNMmodel UNM -11

model UNM -11

Openline modelNow

↗ Line toward model

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: UNM by 7.7 pts (open -3.5, now -4.5). In 2025–2026, with a 7+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 81.3% of the 75 games where the line moved (80 at that gap), but those sides covered 59% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (255 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (352 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUNM -3.5

CurrentUNM -4.5

Total46.5 → 40.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:13

North Dakota State at New Mexico: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:39 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

This line has shifted toward New Mexico. North Dakota State heads to New Mexico for a Saturday kickoff at 10 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have New Mexico 56th and North Dakota State 74th. That’s about 5 points better than North Dakota State on a neutral field. Since week 2, North Dakota State has risen from 83rd to 74th, while New Mexico has climbed from 74th to 56th. Kickoff forecast at University Stadium (NM): 57 degrees, dry, wind 5 miles per hour, gusting to 10. North Dakota State climb about 4200 feet to play here, and the model gives the home side points for it. On offense, New Mexico ranks 52nd and North Dakota State 80th. The defenses are close: 8th and 4th. New Mexico is 3 and 0 against the spread at home. New Mexico is 5 and 1 against the spread this season. The model has New Mexico winning 26 to 20, a 66 percent chance. New Mexico is favored by 4.5, up from 3.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 46.5 and sits at 40.5. Our model makes it New Mexico by 11, with a total near 45.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NDSU	UNM	Over	Under	NDSU	UNM
BetMGMMGM	+4.5-110	-4.5-108	40.5-115	40.5-105	+160	-200
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+4-108	-4-112	41-105	41-115	+160	-183
BetRiversBetRivers	+5-110	-5-113	40.5-109	40.5-114	+165	-210
BetUSBetUS	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	41-105	41-115	+159	-185
BovadaBovada	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	40.5-110	40.5-110	+165	-195
DraftKingsDK	+4.5-108	-4.5-112	40.5-112	40.5-108	+160	-192
FanDuelFD	+4.5-106	-4.5-114	40.5-120	40.5-102	+168	-205
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+4-104	-4-108	41-103	41-114	+160	-183
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	41-110	41-110	+160	-200

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	NDSU	UNM	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+2.5+100	-2.5-120	20.5-109	20.5-111
DraftKingsDK	+2.5+102	-2.5-122	20.5-112	20.5-108
FanDuelFD	+2.5-102	-2.5-120	20.5-106	20.5-114

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

NDSU

UNM

Bets27% 73%

Money83% 17%

Money is 56 pts ahead of bets on NDSU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 4.5-point home favorite against NDSU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 4.9; 44.6 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5
Close	TOL vs TEM 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	49–48	L	O48.5
Close	UCLA vs WIS 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-1.5	17–7	W	U42.5
Close	NEB vs RUTG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-6.25	14–7	W	U40
Close	UCF vs UNC 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-7	34–9	W	U46.5
Close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	6–13	L	U42.5
Close	IU vs MD 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	42–28	W	O49.5
Close	TROY vs USA 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	28–10	W	U43.5
Close	DUKE vs UNC 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	20–24	L	U46.5
Close	IU vs NEB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	56–7	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff

Model Favorite

New Mexico 66%

Projected NDSU 20 – UNM 26 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest

Model line

UNM -11

Market UNM -4.5

Against the spread

Lean UNM -4.5

6.7-pt edge · No edge, context only · 1278-1338 (48.9%)

Total

No lean

Model 45.5 · Just under the 5-point lean threshold (the gap shown is rounded to a half point).

How the model gets there (points from UNM’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)

SpreadUNM rating edge+5.7+Home field+2.5+Travel+3.0=Model marginUNM by 11.2

TotalScoring ratings45.3=Model total45.3

Signals

The data signal, and 5 trends and market moves behind it

Strong New Mexico ATS trend

Strong-or-stronger ATS leans went 52-45 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

Slight Under trend

Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.

New Mexico ATS trend (5-1)

New Mexico have covered 83% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 338-337 (50%)

New Mexico 3-0 ATS at home

Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 228-230 (50%)

New Mexico 4-1 ATS as a favorite

Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 271-262 (51%)

Total moved down 6

46.5 → 40.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)

New Mexico at altitude (+1.3 km)

North Dakota State climb about 4,200 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)

beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
UNM WWWWL	5-1	83%	3-0	4-1

Venue/role: NDSU away, as underdog; UNM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
UNM OUOOU	3-3	50%	5-1

In 380 games with totals 36.5–44.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSUlast 8	6-2 75%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
UNM	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Dakota State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs UTEP	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ HAW	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs NIU	No meeting since 2023

New Mexico

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ SJSU	L28–35LO
Nov 6	@ NEV	W24–22LU
Nov 14	vs UNLV	W40–35WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NDSU−11.9 →−1.8▲ 10.1#74

UNM−4.8 →+3.3▲ 8.1#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NDSU

Longer bar = better

UNM

#80

Offense

UNM better ▶

#52

Defense

Even

+1.1 #9

Turnovers

Even

+2.8 #1

65 plays #80

Pace

Even

64 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NDSU has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	NDSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #71	10.5 #1	UNM
Yards / play	5.56 #92	4.51 #12	UNM
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	−0.18 #1	UNM
Success rate	42% #85	32% #1	UNM

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: NDSU defense

	UNM off	NDSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #10	11.3 #2	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #67	4.26 #4	NDSU
PPA / play	+0.18 #58	−0.15 #3	NDSU
Success rate	43% #73	36% #23	NDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NDSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NDSU scored	6.4 #62	12.6 #19	19.0 #33	6.6 #59	3.9 #125	10.4 #105
UNM allowed	1.7 #6	2.8 #7	4.5 #2	1.2 #4	4.8 #37	6.0 #7

UNM scoring against the NDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	7.0 #50	11.3 #31	18.3 #39	12.2 #2	9.2 #25	21.3 #3
NDSU allowed	2.0 #8	3.9 #18	5.9 #6	1.3 #5	4.1 #23	5.4 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.