New Mexico @ San José State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at San José State · Conference game

New Mexico

5-1 · Power #56

projected

Sat 4:00 PM ET

San José State

4-3 · Power #111

projected

UNM 82%

18% SJSU

Spread

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Total

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model 48.5

Model line

UNM -13

UNM 82% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WWWWL	5-1	83%	2-1	—
SJSU LLWLW	4-3	57%	0-3	—

Venue/role: UNM away; SJSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OUOOU	3-3	50%	5-1
SJSU UUUUU	1-6	14%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
SJSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Mexico

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ NEV	W24–22LU
Nov 14	vs UNLV	W40–35WO
Nov 21	@ WYO	L45–49LO

San José State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs NIU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ AFA	L16–26LU
Nov 21	vs UNLV	L16–27LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNM 0–2 SJSU SJSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · SJSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 3 2025	New Mexico 28 @ San José State 35	SJSU -2.5	SJSU W
Oct 14 2023	San José State 52 @ New Mexico 24	SJSU -6.5	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−4.8 →+3.8▲ 8.6#55

SJSU−10.3 →−10.9▼ 0.6#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UNM

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#52

Offense

◀ UNM better

#94

Defense

◀ UNM better

#67

+2.8 #1

Turnovers

◀ UNM better

0.0 #70

64 plays #93

Pace

SJSU faster ▶

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Even matchup

	UNM off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #10	21.7 #53	UNM
Yards / play	5.91 #67	5.38 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #58	+0.07 #59	Even
Success rate	43% #73	42% #89	Even

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	SJSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #110	10.5 #1	UNM
Yards / play	5.77 #79	4.51 #12	UNM
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	−0.18 #1	UNM
Success rate	40% #104	32% #1	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	7.0 #50	11.3 #30	18.3 #39	12.2 #2	9.2 #25	21.3 #3
SJSU allowed	1.4 #3	6.1 #50	7.6 #17	7.3 #108	6.4 #77	13.7 #108

SJSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	1.4 #136	6.3 #107	7.7 #129	5.7 #80	8.0 #50	13.7 #62
UNM allowed	1.7 #6	2.8 #6	4.5 #2	1.2 #4	4.8 #35	6.0 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.