Northern Illinois @ San José State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at San José State · Conference game

Northern Illinois

0-6 · Power #134

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

San José State

4-3 · Power #111

projected

NIU 18%

82% SJSU

Spread

—

Total

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model 49.5

Model line

SJSU -12.5

SJSU 82% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWLLL	1-5	17%	1-3	—
SJSU LLWLW	4-3	57%	0-3	—

Venue/role: NIU away; SJSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OOUUO	3-3	50%	0-6
SJSU UUUUU	1-6	14%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%
SJSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Northern Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs NEV	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	@ NDSU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	vs UTEP	No meeting since 2023

San José State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ AFA	L16–26LU
Nov 21	vs UNLV	L16–27LU
Nov 27	vs NDSU	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−14.7 →−19.3▼ 4.6#134

SJSU−10.3 →−10.9▼ 0.6#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NIU

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#130

Offense

SJSU better ▶

#94

#132

Defense

SJSU better ▶

#67

−0.2 #86

Turnovers

SJSU better ▶

0.0 #70

63 plays #107

Pace

SJSU faster ▶

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	NIU off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.2 #137	21.7 #53	SJSU
Yards / play	4.90 #126	5.38 #67	SJSU
PPA / play	−0.06 #132	+0.07 #59	SJSU
Success rate	38% #123	42% #89	SJSU

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #110	35.7 #132	SJSU
Yards / play	5.77 #79	6.38 #124	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	+0.29 #135	SJSU
Success rate	40% #104	51% #137	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	2.8 #121	6.2 #108	9.0 #123	1.8 #135	3.3 #135	5.2 #138
SJSU allowed	1.4 #3	6.1 #50	7.6 #17	7.3 #108	6.4 #77	13.7 #108

SJSU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	1.4 #136	6.3 #107	7.7 #129	5.7 #80	8.0 #50	13.7 #62
NIU allowed	10.8 #137	12.0 #129	22.8 #136	8.2 #123	4.7 #32	12.8 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.