Houston @ Utah: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Utah · Conference game

Kickoff forecast50°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Houston

6-1 · Power #21

projected

Sat 10:15 PM ET

Utah

6-0 · Power #10

projected

HOU 30%

70% UTAH

Spread

UTAH -6.5

no move since the open

Total

56.5

model 58

Spread edge

UTAH by 4.5

lean · context

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUTAH -6.5

CurrentUTAH -6.5

Total50.5 → 56.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUTAH -6.5

no move

NowUTAH -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▲ 6

Now56.5

Up 6 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -6.5 · unchangedmodel UTAH -11

model UTAH -11

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Not moved yetModel vs the opening line: UTAH by 4.7 pts (open -6.5, now -6.5). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 74.6% of the 264 games where the line moved (295 at that gap), but those sides covered 53.1% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 54% (275 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUTAH -6.5

CurrentUTAH -6.5

Total50.5 → 56.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:04

Houston at Utah: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:41 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

Here’s how our model sees it. It’s Houston at Utah, Saturday at 10:15 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Utah sits 10th, Houston 21st. That’s about 5 points better than Houston on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Houston has moved up from 49th to 21st, while Utah has climbed from 14th to 10th. Kickoff forecast at Rice-Eccles Stadium: 49 degrees, dry, wind 5 miles per hour. Houston climb about 4600 feet to play here, and the model gives the home side points for it. The offenses are close: 9th and 14th. On defense, Utah ranks 19th and Houston 79th. Utah is 4 and 0 against the spread at home. Utah is 5 and 1 against the spread as favorite. Our model projects Utah 33, Houston 25, with a 70 percent win chance. Utah is favored by 6.5. The total opened at 50.5 and sits at 56.5. Our model makes it Utah by 11, with a total near 58. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	HOU	UTAH	Over	Under	HOU	UTAH
BetMGMMGM	+7-112	-7-105	56.5-112	56.5-105	+200	-250
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+6.5+101	-6.5-121	57.5-110	57.5-110	+207	-250
BetRiversBetRivers	+6.5-109	-6.5-114	56.5-110	56.5-113	+195	-250
BetUSBetUS	+6.5+100	-6.5-120	57.5-110	57.5-110	+210	-250
BovadaBovada	+6.5-105	-6.5-115	56.5-110	56.5-110	+210	-250
DraftKingsDK	+6.5+100	-6.5-120	56.5-115	56.5-105	+205	-250
FanDuelFD	+6.5+100	-6.5-122	56.5-110	56.5-110	+205	-255
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	56.5-110	56.5-110	+202	-255

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	HOU	UTAH	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+3.5-102	-3.5-118	28.5-108	28.5-112
DraftKingsDK	+3.5-102	-3.5-118	28.5-105	28.5-115
FanDuelFD	+4.5-120	-4.5-102	28.5-110	28.5-110

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

HOU +6.5

UTAH -6.5

Bets72% 28%

Money55% 45%

Money is 17 pts ahead of bets on UTAH -6.5

Winner

HOU

UTAH

Bets19% 81%

Money52% 48%

Money is 33 pts ahead of bets on HOU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 6.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 17.4 against an average line of 7.2; 52.8 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs OKST 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	35–32	L	O62.5
Close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	42–20	W	O58
Close	ALA vs TENN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	37–20	W	U60.5
Close	WASH vs RUTG 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	38–19	W	U62.5
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Close	ARIZ vs CIN 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	34–7	W	U56.5
Close	UGA vs MISS 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	43–35	W	O56.5
Close	ND vs USC 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	34–24	L	U60.5
Close	KSU vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	31–7	W	U61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLLWL	3-4	43%	2-1	2-0
UTAH WWWWL	5-1	83%	4-0	5-1

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOUUO	5-2	71%	6-1
UTAH UUOOO	4-2	67%	6-0

In 1299 games with totals 52.5–60.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
UTAH	10-0 100%	7-2-1 78%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs CIN	L0–34
Nov 13	@ COLO	W36–20WO
Nov 21	@ WVU	L35–45LO

Utah

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ CIN	W45–14WO
Nov 7	vs BYU	L21–24LU
Nov 14	@ ARIZ	L10–23LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 1–0 UTAH HOU leads · 1 game since 2023 · HOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Utah 14 @ Houston 17	UTAH -4.5	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+3.9 →+12.6▲ 8.7#21

UTAH+14.7 →+17.5▲ 2.8#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

HOU

Longer bar = better

UTAH

Offense

Even

#14

#79

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#19

+0.7 #23

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #34

71 plays #29

Pace

Even

72 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #13	14.8 #12	Even
Yards / play	6.86 #12	4.82 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #8	−0.01 #26	Even
Success rate	53% #2	34% #12	Even

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	40.2 #8	21.0 #45	UTAH
Yards / play	6.80 #17	5.83 #99	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.30 #18	+0.12 #87	UTAH
Success rate	50% #12	42% #83	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	10.7 #14	10.4 #43	21.1 #19	11.4 #4	6.7 #73	18.1 #16
UTAH allowed	0.5 #1	4.5 #24	5.0 #3	6.3 #93	3.5 #12	9.8 #48

UTAH scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	12.5 #3	11.5 #28	24.0 #10	6.8 #51	9.3 #23	16.2 #30
HOU allowed	2.9 #23	4.4 #23	7.3 #15	7.6 #112	6.1 #65	13.7 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.