West Virginia @ TCU: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at TCU · Conference game

Kickoff forecast73°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

4-3 · Power #73

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

TCU

3-3 · Power #36

projected

WVU 21%

79% TCU

Spread

TCU -10.5

open TCU -7

Total

57.5

model 56

Spread edge

TCU by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTCU -7

CurrentTCU -10.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenTCU -7

3.5 → TCU

NowTCU -10.5

3.5 pts toward TCU

Total

Open58.5

▼ 1

Now57.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened TCU -7 · now TCU -10.5 · moved 3.5 toward TCUmodel TCU -14

model TCU -14

Openline modelNow

↗ Line toward model

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: TCU by 7.0 pts (open -7, now -10.5). In 2025–2026, with a 7+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 81.3% of the 75 games where the line moved (80 at that gap), but those sides covered 59% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 45% (177 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 69% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTCU -7

CurrentTCU -10.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:11

West Virginia at TCU: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 22, 7:28 PM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The market has moved toward TCU. Here is why that matters. West Virginia heads to TCU for a Saturday kickoff at 12 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, TCU sits 31st, West Virginia 82nd. That’s about 9 points better than West Virginia on a neutral field. Since the preseason, West Virginia has held steady around 82nd, while TCU has moved up from 34th to 31st. Kickoff forecast at Amon G. Carter Stadium: 73 degrees, dry, wind 3 miles per hour, gusting to 8. West Virginia games have gone over 7 of 7 times. TCU games have gone under 5 of 6 times. On offense, West Virginia ranks 44th and TCU 88th. TCU has the better defense, 8th to 132nd. West Virginia plays at the faster pace. The model has TCU winning 34 to 23, a 80 percent chance. TCU is favored by 10.5, up from 7 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 58.5 and sits at 57.5. Our model makes it TCU by 12, with a total near 57. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	WVU	TCU	Over	Under	WVU	TCU
BetMGMMGM	+10.5-108	-10.5-110	57.5-108	57.5-110	+310	-400
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+11-110	-11-110	57.5-110	57.5-110	+316	-400
BetRiversBetRivers	+11.5-113	-11.5-110	57.5-117	57.5-106	+275	-375
BetUSBetUS	+11-110	-11-110	57.5-110	57.5-110	+320	-400
BovadaBovada	+11-110	-11-110	57.5-110	57.5-110	+305	-410
DraftKingsDK	+10.5-112	-10.5-108	57.5-110	57.5-110	+310	-395
FanDuelFD	+10.5-110	-10.5-110	57.5-110	57.5-110	+310	-400
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+11-106	-11-106	57.5-108	57.5-108	+316	-400
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+11-110	-11-110	57.5-110	57.5-110	+330	-450

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	WVU	TCU	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+6.5-111	-6.5-109	28.5-103	28.5-117
DraftKingsDK	+5.5-108	-5.5-112	28.5-105	28.5-115
FanDuelFD	+6.5-114	-6.5-106	28.5-102	28.5-120

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

WVU +10.5

TCU -10.5

Bets80% 20%

Money90% 10%

Money is 10 pts ahead of bets on WVU +10.5

Winner

WVU

TCU

Bets8% 92%

Money33% 67%

Money is 25 pts ahead of bets on WVU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 10.5-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 10.8; 62.2 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL vs SYR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	25–33	L	O57.5
Very close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Very close	BOIS vs UNLV 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13	56–31	W	O61
Close	APP vs GASO 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	55–27	W	O63
Close	FRES vs UNLV 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	31–24	L	U56
Close	MIZ vs MSST 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	49–27	W	O50.5
Close	BGSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	31–13	W	U57.5
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Close	WAKE vs STAN 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	57–3	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU WLPLW	3-3-1	50%	0-0-1	1-1-1
TCU WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU OOOOO	7-0	100%	4-3
TCU OUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

In 1203 games with totals 53.5–61.5, 50% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%	8-2 80%
TCU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

West Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ TTU	L0–49LU
Nov 14	vs KU	L10–41LU
Nov 21	vs HOU	W45–35WO

TCU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs KU	W38–27WO
Nov 6	@ ARIZ	W49–28WO
Nov 14	vs KSU	L28–41LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WVU 8–6 TCU WVU leads · 14 games since 1984 · TCU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	TCU 23 @ West Virginia 17	TCU -16.5	WVU W
Sep 30 2023	West Virginia 24 @ TCU 21	TCU -14	WVU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU−1.3 →−1.4▼ 0.1#73

TCU+8.0 →+8.7▲ 0.7#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WVU

Longer bar = better

TCU

#44

Offense

◀ WVU better

#88

#132

Defense

TCU better ▶

0.0 #79

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #85

77 plays #5

Pace

◀ WVU faster

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	WVU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #18	12.2 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.44 #37	4.33 #10	TCU
PPA / play	+0.19 #53	−0.09 #7	TCU
Success rate	43% #69	34% #11	TCU

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #99	34.0 #130	TCU
Yards / play	5.94 #62	7.22 #137	TCU
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	+0.29 #133	TCU
Success rate	41% #92	48% #129	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	8.4 #32	10.4 #43	18.9 #36	8.9 #16	9.9 #16	18.7 #12
TCU allowed	2.8 #19	6.0 #47	8.8 #32	1.0 #2	2.3 #2	3.3 #1

TCU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.3 #65	6.3 #106	12.7 #94	5.7 #83	5.7 #103	11.3 #93
WVU allowed	6.4 #107	6.9 #66	13.3 #88	8.1 #122	12.6 #138	20.7 #137

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.