Baylor @ Kansas: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Kansas · Conference game

Kickoff forecast73°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

4-2 · Power #38

projected

Sat 1:00 PM ET

Kansas

2-4 · Power #46

projected

BAY 54%

46% KU

Spread

BAY -1.5

no move since the open

Total

53.5

model 52.5

Spread edge

KU by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBAY -1.5

CurrentBAY -1.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenBAY -1.5

no move

NowBAY -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Now53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened BAY -1.5 · now BAY -2.5 · moved 1 toward BAYmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 49% (194 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBAY -1.5

CurrentBAY -1.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:02

Baylor at Kansas: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:32 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

This line has shifted toward Baylor. It’s Baylor at Kansas, Saturday at 1 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have Baylor 38th and Kansas 46th. That’s about 3 points better than Kansas on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Baylor has climbed from 48th to 38th, while Kansas has risen from 52nd to 46th. Kickoff forecast at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium: 73 degrees, dry, wind 11 miles per hour, gusting to 22. Kansas is 0 and 4 against the spread as underdog. On offense, Kansas ranks 59th and Baylor 100th. Baylor has the better defense, 14th to 57th. Our model projects Baylor 27, Kansas 25, with a 56 percent win chance. Baylor is favored by 2.5, up from 1.5 at the open, away from our model. The total opened at 54.5 and sits at 53.5. Our model sees it as a coin flip. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	BAY	KU	Over	Under	BAY	KU
BetMGMMGM	-2.5-112	+2.5-105	53.5-110	53.5-108	-135	+110
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	53-115	53-105	-135	+115
BetRiversBetRivers	-2.5-115	+2.5-108	53-110	53-113	-148	+118
BetUSBetUS	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	54-110	54-110	-135	+115
BovadaBovada	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	53.5-110	53.5-110	-135	+115
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-108	+1.5-112	53.5-110	53.5-110	-118	-102
FanDuelFD	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	53.5-110	53.5-110	-134	+112
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-2.5-111	+2.5-101	53-114	53-103	-135	+115
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	53.5-110	53.5-110	-140	+114

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

4 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	BAY	KU	Over	Under
BetRiversBetRivers	-1.5-112	+1.5-120	26.5-130	26.5-103
BetUSBetUS	-1.5-101	+1.5-119	26.5-122	26.5+102
DraftKingsDK	-0.5-115	+0.5-105	27.5+105	27.5-125
FanDuelFD	-1.5-102	+1.5-120	26.5-122	26.5+100

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

BAY -1.5

KU +1.5

Bets63% 37%

Money52% 48%

Money is 11 pts ahead of bets on KU +1.5

Winner

BAY

Bets86% 14%

Money56% 44%

Money is 30 pts ahead of bets on KU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 1.5-point road favorite at KU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.1 against an average line of 2.6; 49.5 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	ISU @ COLO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	17–24	L	U52.5
Very close	ARIZ @ ASU 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	23–7	W	U48.5
Very close	COLO @ KU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	21–37	L	U59.5
Very close	KU @ UCF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	27–20	W	U53.5
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	UVA @ FSU 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	7–38	L	U51.5
Very close	TCU @ CIN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–13	W	U58.5
Very close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	21–26	L	U55
Very close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	2-2
KU LLWLL	2-4	33%	2-1	0-4

Venue/role: BAY away, as favorite; KU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY UOUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
KU OUOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 1492 games with totals 49.5–57.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
KU	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Baylor

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 30	@ UCF	W30–3WU
Nov 7	vs ISU	L21–43LO
Nov 14	@ BYU	L28–34LO

Kansas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ TCU	L27–38LO
Nov 7	vs UCF	W27–20WU
Nov 14	@ WVU	W41–10WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAY 19–4 KU BAY leads · 23 games since 1971 · BAY has won the last 14 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Kansas 17 @ Baylor 45	KU -2.5	BAY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY+4.5 →+8.0▲ 3.5#38

KU+3.1 →+5.0▲ 1.9#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BAY

Longer bar = better

#100

Offense

KU better ▶

#59

#14

Defense

◀ BAY better

#57

+0.2 #62

Turnovers

◀ BAY better

−0.5 #102

82 plays #1

Pace

◀ BAY faster

70 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: KU defense

	BAY off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #67	24.0 #73	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #112	5.43 #70	KU
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.04 #46	KU
Success rate	37% #128	38% #38	KU

When KU has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	KU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #50	14.7 #10	BAY
Yards / play	6.45 #36	4.59 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #72	−0.07 #10	BAY
Success rate	43% #78	35% #15	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.3 #65	10.5 #42	16.8 #52	6.7 #55	6.5 #80	13.2 #71
KU allowed	4.0 #46	6.5 #60	10.5 #48	5.7 #84	7.8 #103	13.5 #104

KU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	4.3 #96	13.2 #14	17.5 #45	7.0 #43	7.5 #56	14.5 #49
BAY allowed	4.3 #57	2.8 #7	7.2 #14	2.7 #24	4.8 #37	7.5 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.