Virginia @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Florida State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Virginia

3-1 · Power #49

final

Final

Florida State

2-2 · Power #40

▲ winner

Closing spread

UVA -1.5

✓ FSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 28–26 FSU

✗ UVA (54%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -1.5

CloseUVA -1.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -1.5

no move

CloseUVA -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -1.5 · unchangedmodel UVA -1.5 matches the line

model UVA -1.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 50% (183 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -1.5

CloseUVA -1.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 1.5-point road favorite at FSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 38–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 2.7; 51.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	28–16	W	U54
Very close	ISU @ COLO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	17–24	L	U52.5
Very close	ARIZ @ ASU 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	23–7	W	U48.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Close	BYU @ ARIZ 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	33–27	W	O46.5
Close	MINN @ ILL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	25–17	W	U47
Close	COLO @ KU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	21–37	L	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WWLW	3-1	75%	—	3-1
FSU LPWL	1-2-1	33%	0-2-1	1-0-1

Venue/role: UVA away, as favorite; FSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1
FSU UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
FSU	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UVA 1–0 FSU UVA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UVA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 26 2025	Florida State 38 @ Virginia 46	FSU -6.5	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA+7.4 →+9.6▲ 2.2#32

FSU+11.5 →+5.7▼ 5.8#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UVA

Longer bar = better

FSU

#27

Offense

◀ UVA better

#50

#26

Defense

◀ UVA better

#113

+1.3 #15

Turnovers

◀ UVA better

−0.3 #91

71 plays #25

Pace

◀ UVA faster

62 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #20	25.3 #90	UVA
Yards / play	6.28 #56	6.32 #123	UVA
PPA / play	+0.33 #17	+0.26 #128	UVA
Success rate	51% #15	45% #109	UVA

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	FSU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #65	13.0 #15	UVA
Yards / play	6.63 #35	4.10 #12	UVA
PPA / play	+0.26 #35	−0.02 #33	Even
Success rate	44% #64	37% #43	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	13.0 #6	8.8 #77	21.8 #31	8.8 #30	10.0 #26	18.8 #20
FSU allowed	2.5 #24	11.8 #127	14.3 #102	4.3 #59	6.8 #86	11.0 #75

FSU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	9.5 #30	8.5 #78	18.0 #51	7.8 #44	6.3 #89	14.0 #66
UVA allowed	1.8 #8	5.0 #34	6.8 #18	3.8 #48	2.5 #7	6.3 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.